With a market cap of $17 million and having distributed to shareholders an average of $10 million PER YEAR from 2017 to 2019, continue to believe that SIR ROyalty is a steal here, despite the share price starting to increase. 

REsults should show material decrease in net debt as federal subsidy programs had not been received last quarter, and restaurants open all summer.  $6.25 million in EDC loan hadn't been accessed as of latest company update.  Importantly, teh CDN government is essentially bridging companies to the other side of this pandemic, thru aid programs (see point 2 below).   Hard to see how this backdrop (along with a willingness by the Bank of Nova Scotia to waive covenants for the time being) leads to bankruptcy at the operating company.  With the possibility of insolvency very low and vaccine rollout imminent, important to step back and see what one owns.   The Trust went public, raised $40 million and then lent that back to the Operating company (the SIR LOAN), on which it receives interest income.   THe Trust also gets a percentage (6%) of all food and beverage sales at the store level.  THe trust has just $100k in quarterly general and administrative expenses (and no debt at the Trust level), so virtually all incoming can be paid out to trust shareholders (which has been the case up to 2020).   Trust shareholders are entitled to this revenue, and it was only due to extraordinary circumstances that the trustees agreed to deferments in 2020.   Once these start flowing again (as they are legally entitled to), the amount will be contingent on how close SIR can get back to pre covid revenue levels. 

Over the next 18 months, I believe this TRUST can reach north of $6 per share.  

Two key facts which makes most of the CDN restaurant stocks a buy:

(1) With news of both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines showing high efficacy, noteworthy canadian government having ordered a total of 9.5 vaccine doses per person, almost twice more than the next closest country (Australia), as per the Economist.  THis suggests that at risk Canadians will be vaccinated likely in Q1/2021, with most of the country done by Q2/21.  

(2) federal and provincial governments continue to provide lots of aid programs, with the wage and rent subsidy programs extended until the end of this year, and now proposing to push it to June 2021 (likely approved)..   This essentially underwrites two big fixed component of restaurant costs (rent and wages).   THe details, as summarized by Restaurants Canada in a press release, found in the following link:

https://www.restaurantscanada.org/industry-news/federal-update-new-wage-and-rent-subsidy-details/