RE:RE:Hypotheticals and Sizing Govt Support Programs for SIR Thank you for your thoughtful response. The one point I would make surrounds the question, “will consumers return to restaurants post vaccine?” . I absolutely believe so, which is why I have been long SIR, KEG, Denny’s, Cheesecake Factory, Texas Roadhouse.
The compound annual growth rate for US restaurant sales (don’t have Canada figures but similar trends would guess) since 1970 is 6%, but the pace dropped to 4% in the decade since the Great Recession. Despite that slower growth, more cash spent on food is being allocated to restaurant spending. In 1955, 25 cents of every $1 spent on food went to restaurants. By early 2020, it was more than half. Driving factors included convenience, socialization, millennials and cost, among others.
Socialization is one of the key factors that has driven this, causing spending on restaurants to exceed that spent on groceries (pre-Covid). Now many are making the case that upgraded kitchens, more cooking at home and cocooning trend here to stay. I don’t buy it for a minute.
If this Covid crisis has shown us anything, it is how humans crave contact with one another. When sports stadiums and concert venues reopen, the public will flock back IMO (recognizing that having had vaccine likely be mandatory to get entry). Same with restaurants. Everyone I know is fed up of delivery and cooking at home.
Now how the restaurants co-exist with digital delivery and catering to millennials will put management teams to the test and there will be failures. But given the number of smaller restaurants who have left the market, the larger chains with good real estate and a track record of success likely gain share. The one location of SIR ROYALTY (the Jack Astor’s) that was a gold mine was York and Front in Toronto. When I had to go downtown or to an event at Air Canada Centre, would occasionally stop there. Just jammed all the time, and wow, what a money maker. One of the best locations of ANY comparable restaurant in the country, and will be a money spinner again once things open back up. Just one example.
Good luck.