STUDENT TRANSPORTATION INC 5.25 PCT DEBS T.STB.DB.A

On the surface the Q2 results look good

[BlueCollar51]

Under the hood not quite so good!
 
Revenue per share;
Q2 2015 = $1.89
Q2 2016 = $1.73
That is a Y/Y DECREASE of 8.4% per share
 
Net Cash from Operations per share;
Q2 2015 = $0.09
Q2 2016 = $0.054 ** excluding the $1.2m Oil and Gas Impairment
That is a Y/Y DECREASE of 39.8% per share
 
Total Debt
Q2 2015 = $315.631m
Q2 2016 = $280.561m
That is a Y/Y Decrease of $35m which looks good until we remember that $69.1m in Dilutive Equity was issued in Q3 2015 to pay down the debt. We can expect the Total Debt to increase as usual until the next Equity Raise. I would expect that in the not too distant future they will issue another Convertible Debenture to free up the Credit Facility.
 
There was a Y/Y $26.37m INCREASE in the “Off Balance Sheet” debt in the same period.
 
DRIP/NCIB Q1/Q2 2016
DRIP Shares Issued = 737,157
NCIB Shares Purchased = 289,973
Basically they used borrowed money to Buy Back 39% of the DRIP shares that were issued at a discount in the First half of Fiscal 2016.
 
 
Payout Ratio ?
 
On the conference call one of the Analysts asked about the POR. The non-answer was very evasive.
 
Student Transportation has a lot of work to do in the last half of Fiscal 2016 to get a decent Annual Result!
 
It remains to be seen if they will be able to achieve their goals going forward. They have a history of overpromising and under delivering.
 
As Always; Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!

[pjn0987654321]

"The non-answer was very evasive." From the transcript - Patrick Walker Yeah, I mean Greg, we kind of look at this on an annual basis and we anticipated this year being in the low 70s, you know last year I think we’re probably 74, I think we this year begin 70 or 71 and going forward we expect that to be in the low to mid-60s, you know but again on an annual basis. --- It would

[sleapeasy]

I see most dont like your analysis, however your calculations are good and more of an open analogy  than the rose coloured glasses management paints with. Next,  what is happening ?  Oil is  going up, and stb cost will  go up.  

[jammo71]

Revenue per share is down 8.4% Y/Y... interesting that you wouldn't provide some context by showing how expenses per share performed in the same period. To save you the struggle, I'll just tell you - expenses per share were down 10% Y/Y. Of course you're under no obligation to provide the whole picture, but when you cherry pick your data points it makes your agenda seem fairly

[BlueCollar51]

That’s correct.   If things are going so well how do you explain the Substantial difference in;   Net cash provided by operating activities Q2 2015 = $7.534m Q2 2016 = $4.029m   Cash and cash equivalents at end of period Q2 2015 = $4.526m *Q1 2016 = $4.223m Q2 2016 = $0.473m   $3.75m Decrease from Q1   Credit Facility YE 2015 = $50.421m Q1 2016 = $127.333m  

[emba33]

Hey BlueCollar51: As you are aware, the stock price was seriously driven downwards ... but has recently seen a huge surge. What do you think initially drove the price over $7 a share ... what do you think drove the price down and now a steep upward trend with higher volume? What do all of these investors see in the fundamentals which haven't really changed that much (or, in your view, declined

[BlueCollar51]

Retail Yield Chasers drove the share price up above $7 CAD.   Don’t forget that in Feb 2015 when the latest bought deal was announced the Yield in CAD was over 7% (7.7% at the bought deal SP of $7.20). Student Transportations yield has historically been quite a bit higher. The CAD/US exchange yate was substantially better in Feb 2015 than now.   The share price started its decline when

[Riskfetish]

BooCaller...Go Lay Down.

[goldsternp]

I never cease to be amazed how wrong "learned" opinions can be. STB's sensible management offers a sensible service to sensible customers and that is guaranteed to suceed, elegant analysis notwithstanding.

[goldsternp]

The past year has been tough on those who are into stock flipping. Seems that is the preferred model these days, rather than investing in productive enterprises. No doubt there are downsides and upsides and you might want to consider: 1. Shareholder's equity/share is up almost 7% year to year which suggests that existing shareholders are benfiting from economies of scale. Remember that 

[goldsternp]

Something else to think about. Without the oil field depreciation, earnings would have been 0.07 instead of 0.06.  On this basis we could be looking at earnings per share of 0.10 this year or 250% of historical earnings !

[BlueCollar51]

The Oil and NG assets were acquired to act as a hedge re Fuel costs.   I have noticed that when a Company strays too far from what they are good at the result is more often than not what they had hoped for.   Now is not the time but if at some time in the not too distant future they can sell the Oil and NG assets for something resembling decent prices they should.   They could then

[goldsternp]

They are certainly good at running buses. 13,000 buses can't be easy. I think there might be some favorable tax implications to owning oil wells but I am sure that they will do what makes sense with this asset.