RE:Just waiting for the tide to turn
88guy88 wrote: January has been a bit of a run up with 6 day of positive but its really just all the tax loss sellers getting back into their positions for the new year.....alot of investors need the write off loss but still like certain companies
Investors are being lulled into a sense of everything is just ok fine and okey dokey and then WHAM one day it hits and everyone is is shock and awe
Patience on the price
I agree with this. Things are not ok. If you look underneath the surface you have wages which is a better gauge of true inflation running at 4.58% y/y or 4.12 % over the last 3 months annualized. With energy prices down over the second half of the year, what would happen to inflation if energy prices begins to rally in 2023?
The Fed funds terminal rate will likely have to surpass 5% to help shrink the money supply. It's precisely during this restrictive time period (May 2023) when the economy will begin to contract and job losses begins.
I think Jerome Powell and Tiff Macklem are full of $hit when it comes to job losses. Even during the 1990 "lighter" recession, the unemployment troughed in March 1989 at 5% and peaked at 7.8% in June 1992. Every recession increases the unemployment rate by on average 3.6% if we look at all recessions post 1953. I would not be surprised to see unemployment reach 7% which is double the current levels in the US. If they are as fortunate as the 1990 recession it will stop at between 6 and 6.5%.
I agree with Anita that Sangoma will probably trade back in the $5's or possibly $4's when the stock market capitulates.
Patience is the key to survive the current climate. Don't take the covid shot, spend time with your family, and you should be ok :)