This is why SU shareholders should be unhappyNorway's SVAL ENERGI is paying $410 million Canadian dollars to SU for 19 million barrels of reserves.
That equates to $21.5 per barrel of reserves that are already in service
Suncor has 4.3 billion PROVEN reserves plus another 2.3 billion PROBABLE reserves
PROVEN reserves are reserves that have a 90+% chance of commercialization
PROBABLE reserves are reserves that have a >50% and less than 90% chance of commercialization
With constant advances in engineering, which Suncor is actually good at btw, lets attach an 80% (as opposed to a 70% midway point) liklihood that Suncor will be able to convert the PROBABLE reserves into actual production. It is not like Suncor has to hope that they can find the oil thousands of feet under the ground or under a sea.
So, let's multiply the 2.3 billion PROBABLE reserve by the .8 = 1.84 billion barrels
Adding 4.3 billion barrels to 1.8 billion barrels = 6.1 billion barrels
Applying the Cdn $21.5 per barrel benchmark that Suncor received from Sval Energi is paying, the math works out to Cdn $131 billion.
If you divide $131 billion by 1.4 billion shares you get $93 per share.
I assume that Sval Energi is buying the equivalent of Brent as opposed to WTI so lets apply a 5% discount taking the $93 per share down to $88 per share.
Let's discount the $88 per share down another $3 to $85 to account for the fact that about 20% (I could be off a bit on this number so feel free to correct me) of oil that SU sells is in WCS form as opposed to SCO
So, let's start with a share price of $85 for SU's reserves.
Now, lets add in $10 billion for the sale of Petro Can divided by 1.4 billion shares = $7 per share
Now, lets add in $25 billion for the sale of the 4 refineries divided by 1.4 billion = $18 per share
Adding $85 + $7 + $18 = $110 per share
So let's assume that buyers want a deep discount of 20% based upon wtf do I know. That still leaves a company worth about $90 per share