RE:RE:RE:So Where could the Market Go?Hi Experienced, To add to this, I say that The Storm is Already Here. Most don't even know it, or are in denial. I moved all my money out of the stock market now. I started exiting about 8 weeks ago. I held onto some of my worst picks for the longest to see if they would recover, some just taking litte bounce as a tease.
If you look at the Dow Jones currently now one has to ask yourself this simple question. Why is it that the Dow Jones is on a slow decent from January at $36,500 to today's number of $29.300.00?
That's a 20% drop. Suncor has increased in that time frame 35%. Suncor had it's ATH increase on June 8th reaching
$53.33 which is a 60% increase from the beginning of this year. But is currently now dropping since it's ATH in June 8th.
To be precise, Suncor has dropped 22% since reaching the ATH this year. What does this mean going forward for Canadian Energy Stocks? I am going to side with Experienced & Obscure1 that next year we will be in the
eye of the storm. And there will be bargains on most stocks. I am not saying that Oil stocks will tank, they could stay firm at these levels if Oil (WTI & Brent) keep rising like they did on Friday. or Canadian Energy stocks could continue dropping by following the Dow Jones current path. Which we all call a sell off.
OPEC+ is desperately trying to keep prices higher. My only worry about this that if you look at Recessions most of the time, if not all the time OIL tanks along with most of all market stocks.
One just needs to Google to be reminded on this lesson:
From a high price of $150 per barrel of oil in mid-2008, the price crashed back to around $30 by the end of 2008
I am not saying this is going to happen again, just know that anything is possible these days. There are so many variables that could change the direction of Oil's price. Play safe. Spanito
Experienced wrote: newcoin wrote: You have to stay in the market so you don't miss the best market days. I will be owning the market constantly and buying on dips. I think this is a lifelong opportunity that we're being presented with.
Just curious
If you are in the market all the time then what money do you have to buy the dips? Seems to me that you must have some money on the sidelines like I do. Either that or you are like a Central Bank and can print money out of thin air...lol.
The other thing is - what do you mean by "the market". Do you mean just stocks or stocks and bonds?
The other question I have is how you can say this is a lifetime opportunity if you are fully invested and just followed the market down and back up? The only way it is a lifetime opportunity is if you have put some cash on the sidelines waiting to pounce when the time is right.
So for those who care to listen and not get bored, here is a real life example of what I did during the Great Recession before I retired from The Street.
At every meeting of the firm in 2008 and early 2009, there would be a presenter who was advocating not selling anything and staying the course using all kinds of what I would argue was bogus arguments. At the beginning, I would question the logic and eventually I stopped asking questions at the meetings since it was a waste of time.
I saw a big storm coming back then, just like I am now. I took my own money and millions of dollars of client money out of the stock market and bought of combination (depending on the client situation - risk and taxes etc) of cash, GICs and corporate and Government bonds.
While the market was going down, Central banks were cutting interest rates and the value of the bonds were going up as the stock market fell. The GICs made money based on the interest rate that was locked in. So while my colleagues on the Street kept beating their breasts and saying you can't miss the good market days and saw their client portfolio values plummet by as much as 50%, my clients' portfolio peformance ranged from slightly negative to positive.
Comversely, the market changed course in March 2009. I waited until early May to make sure things were real as to the market direction and sold my client's bonds and used their cash to buy back the stocks they owned before at fire sale prices and well below what they had sold them for.
Frankly I can see the history repeating itself. The only big difference between the situation now and back then is that buying bonds would be a bad investment because interest rates are going up not down.
Are there risks doing what I did?
For sure!!
If I was wrong about the storm coming my clients would have been worse off compared to those who didn't sell.
Time will tell if I am right this time.