Here comes NOPEC and all that comes with itThe Americans are really pisssed at Saudi Arabia.
Rightfully so as MSB once again essentially spit in Biden's face.
MSB chose to side with Russia again but the difference this time is that MSB spit in Europe's face in its time of need. How do you think this is playing our in the EU?
I wouldn't be surprised if the US builds a story board to be presented in time for the mid term election where Saudi Arabia is going to be made out to be an ally of Russia (which it is) and therefore tarred with the same brush.
The one clear thing that has come out of the Russia/Ukraine war is that Russia is a paper tiger.
Ukraine has turned the war around after receiving only dribs and drabs of equipment from the USA. It is now very clear who is the hammer and who is the nail. If Biden needs to be the hammer for re-election, he will. This reminds me of the famous Mike Tyson quote of "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".
The DEMS will be more than happy to present America with a common enemy with a determined Commander in Chief to lead the charge.
The demand/supply problems of the world aren't going to magically go away, but if Biden thinks the election in 2024 will swing on oil prices and leadership, it wouldn't surprise me to see oil prices head south in a significant way. I don't think it is a coincidence that the SPR recently indicated that it would be a buyer of oil at $60 to replenish its reserves.
Oil prices yo-yo at the best of times and these are not the best of times. I think we are in for a lot of volatility based upon a nasty Macro picture. James Dimon came out today with the JP Morgan prediction that we are going to see the S&P drop 20%. Even Jim Cramer implored his followers to raise cash today.
SU is down 15% from it $53 peak earlier this year. There is lots of room for it to go lower, especially if Biden changes the narrative on oil based upon saving Europe and fighting inflation.
America has the guns to get what it wants.
The Macro question is "will they use them?". I can't help but get the feeling that the Nord Stream and the Kerch bridge bridge explosions weren't random acts of stupidity.
The Micro question is "what will happen to the SU share price?".
With the FED and the investment banks warning everyone to duck, it now feels like it is just a matter of time before the advice becomes self-fulfilling.
I'm struggling with the decision to sell my Tesla shares, which I promised myself I would not do this decade. I know I should do it, but it is difficult even though I know what i need to do. Damn you stock market.