Saudi Aramco CFO 2 days ago, i watched an interview with Saudi Aramco CFO.
On a scale of 1 to 100 in the knowledge of this industry he must be at
the high end while i am at the low end.So when these guys speak, i listen.
The conspiracists may say, that he has an agenda and we should take is word with caution.
But i beleive what he had to say in this interview.
Here is what he said
He said what most of us know about natural depletion.
That is that it's about 6% / year.He said demand for oil is about 100 million bbl/day(we know that)
So natuaral depletion is 6 million a day(He is strong in maths).
He said that two years of depletion equats to 1 Saudi Aramco about 12 million bbl/day
He said that most E&P company around the world have change the way they operate.
That is less $$$ going toward finding new reserves and more going rewarding
shareholders(We also know that).
He said that if things don't change quickly, we will be facing a huge problem in a not
to distant future(That's is not shared by all).Many thinks that the green technologie
will come to the rescue.
For now, when i look at the WTI future contract prices going a few years down , it does not reflects his view.
But we also know that these future contracts can and do change with time.
If he is right and E&P don't change the way they operate, we could be in an
energy deficit in a few years and we know what would happen to oil price.
Staying long