Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

2 Year 10 Year Yield Curves

[555rookie555]

does anyone have experience whether the bond yield curve actually indicates a recession? If so given the current fundamentals of the energy sector, does anyone think it will be insulated from the downside of recessionary data? IMHO the fundamentals of energy are solid for decades... I just don't have first hand experience navigating recessionary data (eg inverses yield curves) so any comments would be much appreciated. Tha k you in advance

[Thor16]

I do yes.  Statistically speaking inverted curve preceeds recession however it is not the case 100% of the time.  I can't recall off hand what the actual stat is but it is reasonably high, however declining over time.   When considering energy consumpation during periods of economic contraction there generally isn't actual demand decline, however more the pace of

[Experienced]

Great question!! I have "lived" through market ups and downs since 1969.   Here's my take for what it is worth. 1.....In a recession everything goes down irrespective of the fundamentals or earnings.  So if we go into a recession later this year or next year as I am predicting, then the SP of everything will go down. 2....there is relationship between bond yields and

[555rookie555]

Thank you Experienced for sharing your experiences. I had some hard earned keg powder at the start of COVID and have nearly tripled it, learning and gaining experience along the way. This forum has been a meaningful resource and I'm very thankful for your contributions Experienced, Migraine, Thor and others. Bless you guys for being generous and sharing your thoughts.

[Obscure1]

I have lived through a few recessions and dabbled in the market a bit myself. An inverted yield curve is a great indicator of an impending recession, but many inverted yield curves don't result in a recession.  It really depends upon how inverted the curve gets and for how long.  Temporary inversions are typically meaningless while extended and steep inversions are better indicators

[Experienced]

Good points as usual my friend. Some additional thoughts.... 1.....while I have not put much credence into a declining yield curve as an indicator of an impending recession like many economic commentators, if you do subscribe to that theory then the inversion this time around has been persistent - can't recall how long but it's been at least a month and it has gotten steeper.  A few

[firstworld]

There is still so much welfare in the system that jobs numbers are meaningless since nearly all new hires are subsidized as well as apprenticeships and other training. Canadians are flat broke and over their heads in debt. Govt attacking oil & gas. So happy I dumped SU at $51