Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Cpi less energy

[Torontojay]

Do not pay attention to headline numbers and the media telling you that inflation is falling. The reason inflation is lower and likely to bottom when the June data is released is due to the base effect on how inflation is calculated. If you take the month over month Cpi print and do this for each month over a 12 month period then you get an annualized total. Last year, energy prices peaked with the June data which implies that inflation is likely to bottom at around 3% when the June data comes out. The reason is called the base effect. You are eliminated the cpi m/m from June 2022/May 2022 and replacing it with this years m/m increase which is lower than last year. 

Cpi less energy is still consistently close to 5% annualized. In fact, Cpi less energy is 4.6% and is trending at 4.8% (6 months annualized) and 5.9% (3 month annualized) 
This is the trend on where inflation is going but you won't hear this from media sources.

[matt2018]

What I quoted Torontojay is what the Gov't of Canada put out on CPI, not the media. Regardless, we can see where the inflation is mostly coming from now. Stop raising rates and you will get to the elusive 2% eventually. And we should go by the month over month numbers. You can't go back and compare present day monthly data to what things cost 2 years ago. That ship has sailed.  That

[Torontojay]

I wasn't referring to you but about many people, including some on Stockhouse, saying that inflation is falling because this is exactly how the media reports it. This is not true.  Inflation is still stubborn in the 5% range and still above 4% if you exclude the mortgage interest costs impact on inflation.  Increases in unemployment is what will get you to 2%. Canada will likely

[matt2018]

torontojay.... we seen the job numbers today stateside.  Raising rates to force unemployment is not working.  Economic coercion, through threats of unemployment is nothing but class warfare.

[Torontojay]

Matt, have you heard of the saying, monetary policy works with long and variable lags? Be patient, and the job losses will have to come because labour productivity and average hours worked are declining in both Canada and the US.  The US is still adding jobs in the hospitality sector due to the disruption from covid. This will inevitable come to an end when the labour force catches up. They

[matt2018]

Powell has raised rates 10 times so far (5%). He's managed to take out a few banks and likely some bankruptcies.  Private sector new jobs for June were half a million! (economists expectations were for 228k). The May jobs were 267k, so thats quite a leap in one month.  U.S. new car sales for June up 21% YoY.. All-time day record set last Friday for flying customers of 2.9M travelers

[autofocus111]

matt Not a chance they stop raising rates now. The CBs know that an oil supply crunch is set to trigger in the coming months unless they can force the economy and consumers to slow down. It they choose to hold rates steady, oil prices will blast off and drive inflation right back up again.