Renewables are expected to rise to 90% of Australia's energy needs by 2030 as coal and oil peaker plants are being replaced at an astonishing pace.
Nothing to see here. No discernible trends. No path of success for other countries to follow.
In the USA (according to the EIA):
- Transportation67.2%
- Industrial26.9%
- Residential2.8%
- Commercial2.5%
- Electric power0.5%
By 2030, the IEA predicts that only 29.5% of American automobile sales will be EV's. The IEA has a horrible track record when it comes to predictions. In Q1 2023, EV sales made only made up 7.1% of all sales so No Worries right?
The EV adoption rate is growing at 50% per year. Lets expand out 7.1 % a few years...2024 = 10.8%....2025 = 16.2%.....2026 24.3%.....2027 = 36.5%....2028 = 54.8%.....2029 = 82.2%
Let's slow the adoption rate down to 40% to be conservative ......2024 = 9.94%.....2025 = 13.92%....2026 = 19.48%.....2027 = 27.28%.....2028 = 38.19%....2029 = 53.47%....2030 = 74.86%
The inability of legacy auto makers to produce EV's that anyone wants to buy due to low quality products for the money means that manufacturers won't be producing enough EV's. The fact that legacy auto makers are losing billions of dollars per year trying to figure how to build decent EV's is also hold the companies back. As Jim Farley says, the problem isn't demand.
Tesla is only going to be able to produce so many EV's so the legacy auto makers are in no hurry to lose huge amounts of money on every EV they make while they continue to fleece their existing ICE vehicle customers. The auto makers may be "slow" but they are not a dumb as they know that their customers think it is ok to massively over pay to buy inferior vehicles. Let's hear it for Ram Tough and whatever idiotic slogans Ford and GM use.
All of the smug, warm fuzzy feelings that ICE vehcile makers are feeling in America will change in a heart beat if America starts letting Chinese automakers sell their EV's in the USA. Europe is now experiencing what happens when the borders get opened to Chinese EV makers as ICE vehicle sales in Europe are falling off a cliff. Worse still for the European auto makers who produce EV's is that their EV sales are also plumetting because their products suck compared to Chinese EV's
The arrogance that legacy auto makers have and will continue to exibit is going to see the termination of most of the auto makers. Some will buy into Chinese automakers to survive like VW just did by buying 5% of XPENG and GM with SAIC but the Chinese will evebtually skin them alive.
As the numbers that I imported above show, transportation accounts for 67% of the consumption of oil in the USA while the energy grid pretty much uses the rest.
Since this is a SU discussion board, and SU is almost 100% tied to American and Canadian behaviors as the company has almost zero means of exporting its products overseas, one has to acknowledge that there are still going to be lots of gas powered cars on the road in American by 2030. One also has to acknowledge that the number is going to drop off year quickly year by year.
The USA power grid is a MESS and needs huge upgrades so it will continue to use oil oil by 2030. However, if somebody in the USA bothers to look outside its borders to Australia for example, or can get past the incredibly powerful oil lobby efforts and implement Tony Seba's work, the use of oil to power the grid may actually fall in the USA. No matter what, oil is not going to be powering the future developement of the American grid going forward.
In summary, the demand for SU's oil is going to be dropping going forward as the oil is land locked. How fast the demand for SU oil drops remains to be seen but it isn't going to be pretty. What is SU doing about the future? So far, the strategy has been to double down on oil.
Now it's time for the kids to TROLL me again as that is their "power". BTW, the man that I met at one of the many beautiful beaches on Kempenfelt Bay that the children are trolling about is a real person who is in his 50s and is retired after making good money working in the oil patch for most of his career. The guy is a very proficient kayaker who has been teaching me how to improve my kayaking technique. When you work hard for a living, you end up doing the things that make you happy instead of trolling because your life sucks.