Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Next move when you are stuck between a rock and a hard place

[Obscure1]

A bump in the divi is never a bad thing unless a company can't afford to pay.  SU can definitely afford to pay.  

I believe that SU would eliminate its share buy back program and start paying out every cent of earnings and even most of its DCF if management were not afraid that the SHORTS would quickly wrap their hands around the throat of the company.  

The street hates SU for its poor operating performance and safety record in recent years but mostly, the street will never forgive SU for slashing its dividend in 2020.  Once a company has made a fund manager look bad, don't expect him/her to ever come back.  There are just too many alternatives to invest in that haven't left a bad taste in the mouth and SU's prospects are pretty dismal.  
  
Politicians hate the tarsands.  It started out with the environmental cries of danger but we all know that is a load.  But, when was the last time a politician admitted to voters that they were wrong?  Can anyone imagine Trudeau saying "oops my bad, the WEF tricked me". 

Swimming upstream against self-righteous politicians is a dfficult path, but it is not even close to being the most  condemning factor in what is in store for SU which is that everyone wants out of the tarsands 

Foreign oil companies want out. 

Green policy agendas of too many funds have made investing in the tar sands impossible and divesting a priority. 

The venerable Canadian dividend giants ENB (diversifying away from oil) and TRP (exiting oil) have seen the writing on the wall and have made their intentions clear.  It doesn't get any closer to home that that.

EV's are coming hard and fast.  The only unknown is the expiratioin date for ICE. vehicles. 

China is dominating the race to EV adoption and green policies. No surprise there as China hates being dependent upon others for oil. 

Europe is pursuing green at a far faster pace than the USA and Canada.  No suprise there as Europe has always been energy dependent and Russia has taught Europe a tough lesson about ransome. 

India isn't saddled with an oil infrastructure. Once Elon gets his EV and battery storage businesses going in India, the overwhelming math will take care of India doing what is best for India.

SU has decided that everyone else is wrong and has doubled down on playing oil to the bitter end. 

If SU use its massive cash flow to diversify away from oil, it should be paying out every cent of earnings and rededicate the majority of its distributable cash flow to paying dividends.

You can't blame SU for using the share buy back program as a tactic to delay the inevitable for as long as possible. 

At this point in time, SU has made its bed and is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Given that SU has no buyers to take assets off its hands, I expect SU will chug along doing the best that it can to survive for as long as possible.

[mrbb]

funny that batman and robin never extend their reasoning against oil on why exxon, chevron doubling down on oil and couche tard on gas stations but (obscure1) chooses ENB and TRP, technically from a different sector (pipeline utilities) on why they divesting out of oil.  First ENB believe they have sufficient oil transport capacity,  TRP is a gas transmission company from its root, why

[Experienced]

Obscure.....good post - what you are talking about is what I have talked about many times.  That is the direction arrow.  Successful investing involves chosing/finding companies with a positive upward sloping direction arrow. But just for the sake of argument let's say that the whole world as an OMG moment and decides that EVs are not the way of the future and politicians to a 180

[MigraineCall]

I think a substantial increse in share price does not require any of those scenarios to happen. Even if Canada East moves away from petroleum fuels, it will not impact Suncor to the same extent as many fear. Proven with recent Q3 reports, Suncor is presently doing very well. 1) Oil production merely has to stay the same 2) Oil price does not have to increase, however the diffs will tighten

[Experienced]

As usual, we respectfully disagree my friend.  I hope for your sake that your assessment proves accurate. For my part, I see too many parallels to what is going WRT to SU and what has happened to other large companies over the years that didn't adjust to new technologies and a changing market for their products. As for your comment about a valuation reset to that of its peers, IMO, at

[bttmfischer]

In summary our elected, governing politicians raised hypocracy and incompetence to new heights. They can't even see that without our oil exports to the US our money would be under 60 cents US. 

[Marty47]

Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) may exit some markets and products of its struggling wind turbine business, it said on Wednesday, in a bid to return Siemens Gamesa to profit after it triggered the group's 4.6-billion euro ($5.0-billion) annual net loss. Siemens Energy on Tuesday secured a 12-billion euro credit line from private banks that was partly backstopped by the German

[Experienced]

Marty.....As an investor in an oil company how does this news improve the prospects for SU when very little oil is used to produce electricity in NA? If you were invested in a NG producer like I am this would be good news.

[Marty47]

Just to show investment in renewal does always equal shareholders return and for now a lot of $$$ is lost just to please the greenduds , and customers not willing to go broke to save the planet yet , same as big oil , moving too quick with solar and wind as interest is up won't be beneficials for now , technology need to be better , cheap stuff getting build , better stuff is comming . 

[Stockhudson]

did we lay off employess   in the last little while