Post by
Experienced on Apr 14, 2024 10:08am
Iran Drone Attack - Debrief
Spoke to my Us General friend this morning about what was going on regarding the Iran drone attack and his views on what is next.
Here is the Executive Summary....
1.....The Iranian airforce is very weak. They have much less capability than is available than in US Carrier fleet in the area, let alone the Israeli capacity
2....their army is weak and poorly trained and would be wiped out in a conflict
3...the Iranians have put all their money into drones and missles and supplying armaments to their proxies in the Middle East
4...Iran does not a fight in their homeland and hence up to now have been using their proxies. A fight in their homeland would likely result in the toppling of the regime (a la Hussein in Iraq) which the leadership doesn't want for obvious reasons
5...Israel and the US have demonstrated to Iran that Iranian drones etc are ineffective against the Israeli defence system so it's a strong message to Iran that they have nothing except something extreme (nuclear?)
6...Iran cannot afford to have their oil shipments disrupted both economically and politically
7...The last attack was just a face saving gesture by Iran after a couple of their top Generals were killed by Israel
8....Israel doesn't need another front right now
Bottom Line..
Back to the status quo
If you agree with the General's assessment then from an investment point of view, there could be a temporary pop in oil prices tomorrow and it could be a good time to take some profits. If you disagree then don't...lol