MigraineCall wrote: Idea land? You need to travel more. Zoom out to get the big picture.
Canada is certainly not representative of the world, with a mere 4 people per sq km. In the summer, I fly 30 minutes on a float plane into our family fishing lodge in Northern Saskatchewan on the Canadian Shield. There I am alone on a boat on a pristine lake with the nearest human 30 kms away. If that is all I saw of the world, I would think that as well.
Growing food in ditches and on every scrap of soil and pots is very common now here in Asia.
Terraced rice fields are everywhere up north now, and more being carved out, with water being pumped up hills to irrigate. The gasoline engine for the pump chugging away all day, thump thump thump.
Jungle hills have been slashed and burned, and crops like rice, or even corn on 45 degreee slopes are planted everywhere possible, even within the National Parks. When it rains, rich soils from the hillside wash down into the rivers. Unsustainable.
Our news here reports often of tigers and elephants that have been killed in these parks, due to conflicts with those farming and raising animals. Yet there are only 67 million people here, most in cities. Thailand and China have a density about 40 times Canada. In India 100 times. Seems you can't swing a dead cat without whacking someone.
What is alarming is the future. Populations are growing in areas where arable land is becoming more scarce, and past productive areas are dry with no water. California is drying up, the source of your vegetables. Aquifers are being depleted in cattle feedlots. Fertilizer costs have doubled. With inflation and supply chain issues, you can expect to see a LOT more home gardens being made this spring. You will be affected.
The world is getting smaller every day, and we are using it up faster and faster with insatiable greed.
OK, to keep it relevant to the board, how does all this affect oil?
Even with these new food challanges, demographic forecasts predict wealthier growing middle classes in major population areas like Africa, India, and Asia. The increasing energy demands of their homes and more vehicles and everything that goes along with sustaining them, cannot be met by the increase in renewables. China and India are even going all out on construction of hundreds of new thermal coal power plants. There is a deficit, and oil and gas will continue to be the bridge to make up the difference.
China's energy policy has been made clear by Xi's announcement just weeks ago stating that they will not sacrifice the economy for climate. They have orderd maximum coal production. China has reigned in small teapot refiners, and restricted exports of petroleum products to favour state operators that they control. They have cut imports in an attempt to avoid paying $80 oil, but now they have to replenish stockpiles at $90. They got lucky this month, and are taking advantage of Russian Ural cargos at a steep discount, that western refineries have shunned due to the risk of it being sanctioned. They will eventually have to fork out and pay world prices.
I have heard verious news reports of shortages of heavy oil for global refiners lately, which may become a common theme as Maya and Venezuelan crude is off the markets. Canadian heavy may be in great demand by the time TMX gets operational in 2023, and we have lots of it.
As markets reel from the fresh news and fear from all the talk of interest rate hikes, there may be an oppportunity to take advantage by reloading into more energy stocks on this index dip. Nothing has changed in the energy picture, and oil is still strong at $90. I was able to sell some positions yesterday after the peak, and bought half back at the end of the day.
My plan is to continue to play the energy long game with the core, but able to stay nimble with a bit of dry powder to take advantage of the volatility.
Eat well and enjoy good food while you still can.
555rookie555 wrote:
until I see people growing gardens in the ditches and on rail/pipeline right of ways the shortage of arable land exists only in idea land.