Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Alternate Symbol(s): SU

Energy Oil & Gas Integrated

Suncor Energy Inc. is a Canada-based integrated energy company. The Company's segments include Oil Sands, Exploration and Production (E&P), and Refining and Marketing. Its operations include oil sands development, production and upgrading, offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining in Canada and the United States and its Petro-Canada retail and wholesale distribution networks, including Canada’s Electric Highway, a coast-to-coast network of fast-charging electric vehicles (EV) stations. Petro-Canada has a network of over 1,800 retail and wholesale locations across Canada, providing customers with a wide variety of fuel and service offerings including low-carbon fuel options. It is developing petroleum resources while advancing the transition to a low-emissions future through investment in power and renewable fuels. It also wholly owns the Fort Hills Project, which is located in Alberta's Athabasca region, approximately 90 kilometers north of Fort McMurray.

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Suncor Energy Inc. > November "might" be the start of the Suncor bull

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Post by Clemxb7on Sep 20, 2022 9:07pm

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Post# 34975279

November "might" be the start of the Suncor bull

So anybody up for some speculations?

Suncor sold some projects and will get proceeds of about $850 million this quarter.
Suncor slowed the stock buybacks in August and July to shift the focus to paying down debt.
In the second quarter they spent 2.5 billion CAD on buybacks (and the stock price reflected it).
In the second quarter they paid down about a billion CAD in debt.
So in the second quarter Suncor spent $3.5 billion on debt and stock buybacks.
So far this quarter (July and August) they have spent $825 million buying back shares.
My personal opinion is Suncor will have FCF close though short of Q2
If we assume that Suncor will have 3+ billion to put towards debt and of that 1.25 billion will end up going towards buybacks
Then in total including the proceeds from the sale of the projects Suncor will put somewhere around $2.75 billion towards debt repayment.
At June 30th Suncor owed 15.5 billion $ CAD and have stated they will put 75% of the debt/stock buyback money towards buybacks when net debt equals 12 billion.
At September 30th they should owe around 12.75 billion.
By November 1 the 12 billion $ threshold should be met.
75% of the debt/buyback money will now go towards buybacks.
In Q2 the money allotted for buybacks and Debt was $3.5 billion. (Q3 ~3+billion)
in Q4 Suncor will spend around 2.75 billion on buybacks. (if they have similar quarters to Q2 and Q3.)
After November 75% of free cash will go towards buybacks so that like Suncor always is spending money on buybacks like May and June.
November also has larger macro implications like then ending of the SPR.