RE:RE:The recent $1.9 billion SU short sale mysterySorry, I can't add much to this. However, looking at the chart, there were two tops during this 2 week period, with a bottom in the middle, comparable to where we are now.
Unless these short postitions were initiated at either of these 2 tops, they are mostly underwater or breaking even now. I do not think many expected such a good earnings report as what actually had came out, and the positive market response to it.
Shorting has been twice as heavy in Aug 31, and Nov 30. At this level, it fits into the noise category for me. Not worried.
Experienced wrote: Good post...a few thoughts
1...I don't think that the increased short position is a result of options traders hedging their trades as a cursory look doesn't yield the necessary opening positions in the options chain (perhaps Migraine has the details/specifics as to whether I am right about this or not). If I am right about this then it would appear that some people have made a clear bet on a downdraft for the SU SP. We have already seen some of this if you look at the trading leading up to and after the release of the 4Q numbers.
2....as mentioned before I might buy if the shorts take the SP down a lot with an even bigger short position and there evidence that they are starting to cover their shorts. I have always found that the path of least resistance is to simply take the lead from the "Grownups" on the Street and NEVER try to fight them or think you are better than them.
3....for me - like you....my rolodex names are pretty stale and most of them have retired so unlike the old days when I could get a "wink and a nod" from some well placed phone calls, those days are long gone for me so I all I can do is read the tea leaves and use my experience to act accordingly.