What if the Shorts knewOne of the things that really sticks out from my days on the street is that the people that make the BIG bucks in the market absolutely have better information than the rest of us. As I mentioned in an earlier post, secrets don't last long in the inner circle as the street is a small world where "everyone knows your name".
I find myself pondering if the large Short position on Suncor that was created recently was a result of:
ASSUMPTIONS:
* it is widely known that the BoD has been looking for a new CEO
* Elliotte Management Group has been seeking changes which included selling off PetroCan
* at the top of the information food chain in the investment industry, a certain number of people would have become aware of the Kruger hiring well before the news was announced....new CEO announcements are not snap decisions as the pros and cons are debated and lots of due diligence is performed
* while the hiriing of Kruger would be seen as a stabilizing influence, the hiring would absolutely be viewed as a doubling down on the past as opposed to looking to the future in the oil industry
* this story might remind some of the IPL takeover by Brookfield due to the old school cronyism at the top of IPL
WHAT IF:
* Elliotte (nearly 50 million shares) and their supporters (unknown # of shares) are not happy with the fact that the SU BoD has decided to go old school instead of focusing on the future of energy
* the top of the food chain in the investment industry know about the Krug hiring in advance (let's say since Feb 1) and expect Elliotte will want to sell their 50+ million shares of SU based upon the BoD decision
* the industry insiders decide to Short 60 million shares with the belief that they will be able to buy the "Elliotte and friend's" position...the numbers seem like more than a coincidence
* the industry insiders will have taken a number of factors under consideration beyond the obvious such as the fact that the FED is turning more hawkish in regards to wrestling down inflation with higher interest rates AND that Biden wants to replace the SPR at prices lower than what oil is trading at today
It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the spoon fed media starts publishing negative reports on Suncor or tar sand operations etc once the Shorts have all of their ducks lined up.
Once the fear kicks in, the Shorts facilitate the share price slide. Before you know it, Elliotte and friends will have sold their position which the Shorts will use to cover for a $500 million win.
Let me be clear that I do NOT know if the above scenario is real as it might just be my mind playing tricks on me. It all just seems really familiar to me.