RE:More on Global Oil Demand Going ForwardGreat points as usual.
Here are some counter points just for fun:
* as the Shorts were crushing the price of Tesla shares last December, the spoon fed media was fueling a demand destruction narrative for EV's....I spent a fair amount of time over the Xmas to New Years holiday telling friends and family that the narrative was a hoax and to load up on Tesla which has made a number of people in my life very happy
* turns out that the demand issue was about price, not a concern for EV's....when Tesla dropped its prices, Elon announced that demand was outstripping Tesla's ability to produce cars by a 2 to 1 ration by the end of January.
* Tesla is expected to announce plans for a $25,000 car this week which will make the car afffordable to 80% of the car buying market
* California is now the 10th largest new car market in the world by volume and 6th by revenues
* all California residents get a $2,000 credit on EV's and anyone earning less than $54,800 gets a $7,500 credit.....that means that every student and most middle income worker (or their kids) will be able to buy a Tesla for about $10,000 in California in the near future...in 2022, 19% of all new car sales in California were EV's when the average price was $54,000....guess what is going to happen in the next couple of years
* BYD sells its Dolphin for $14.5k which will soon be available around the world
* BYD is also introducing a car that sells for under $9k in China
* 4 billion people in the world have a new worth of $50k to $100k who are going to be able to afford the freedom and employment opportunities offered by car ownership......and none of those vehicles are going to be ICE cars
* The annual market for new cars in China is now 27 million cars per year which is about 1/3 of the world demand for cars.....the market has always been dominated by legacy American and European ICE auto makers in the past....in 2022, 36% of new auto sales in China were EV's (about 11% were hydrids which will die off as soon as pure EV manufacturing ramps up).....ICE vehicles are DONE in China which is where companies like GM and Mercedes and Volvo etc made over half of their profit in recent years.........today, Nissan announced they are joining the EV world as they declared that people like EV's.....Toyota recently fired their CEO who was anti-EV and said they are reviewing their plans....Ford is separating its ICE and EV divisions and is focusing all of its efforts on EV's at Blue Oval. GM is racing to convert but they can't make an EV that works or is safe and they are losing a ton of money at it......it is now 100% clear that to survive as an auto maker, you have to make EV's so the transformation is going to happen LONG before the 2035 agenda comes around....that means if you want a new gas powered car for the future, you better get one in the next couple of year because they are going to become scarce as soon as the auto makers can ramp up production of EV's....the good news is that used ICE vehicles are soon going to be selling for dirt cheap
So, lests take a look at how oil is used in the US:
- Transportation 67.2%............soon to be in rapid decline as auto makers are going to stop selling them
- Industrial 26.9%.......soon to be replaced by solar panels (which don't require sunshine anymore) and Mega packs (that recover their cost in energy savings in about 2 years) for cost savings and but also for reliability
- Residential 2.8% ...MUCH cheaper.solar panels and battery power walls coming soon...which will also power the EV's parked in the driveway and garages
- Commercial 2.5%...solar panels and power walls
- Electric power 0.5%........who cares
Suncor sells almost all of its products to the Transportation industry and the auto manufacturers are racing to convert to EV production. What is Suncor's plan?
In 1900, there were no cars in New York as horses and buggies were the only form of transportaion. Twelve years later, they were selling horses for meat as nobody wanted horses anymore.
Iphones and androids were introduced in 2007. In a very short time, Nokia and Blackberry phones virtually disappeared as they couldn't compete. The same transition is coming for oil.
In 2022, auto sales in the USA were down 8% while EV sales were up 49%. The downward spiral for ICE vehicle sales is going to accelerate even faster going forward as the acceptance of EV's increases.
The stats provided by MigraineCall are impressive but they ignore the energy transformation that is already underway. The days of linear adoption rates collapse the moment technolgy makes old systems obsolete. EV adoption has already passed the tipping point and solar/energy adoption won't be far behind.
SU shareholders reading this are going to be angry with me for what I have written here. Please understand that I'm not trying to pisss you off or hurt you. I'm not trying to trick you into selling your SU shares so that I can buy them back at a discount.