RE:RE:RE:More on Global Oil Demand Going ForwardI totally agree.
The 'energy transition', is misnomer. It is more like an 'energy addition' to ever increasing global energy demand, but with a higher electrical and renewable component. We will need all forms, and soon.
It requires a massive replacement and build out of new electrical infrastructure, only possible by the increased use of fossil fuels in mines and power plants for all the copper, aluminum, battery components, etc. we will need to do it.
With more than 150 new coal fired power plants in Asia under construction, or approved, recent announcements last week added even more coal plants to the mix. Pakistan will quadruple coal power plants in 10 years. India passed laws to maximize coal power supplies for power production. China is so desperate they are back buying Australian coal. In Europe, they are rushing back to coal use at every opportunity as energy security is clearly a priority over climate change. Meanwhile, in Norway Greta mob have switched tactics and are now protesting new northern wind power installations...
We are idiots, declaring a no peeing section in the swimming pool.
How can we dare think we can achieve such an agressive path of progress when the world's energy supply is so messed up? I don't believe it.
There are a massive disparities across the globe and even within Canada when it comes to energy availability and prices.
I point out the huge difference in electricity prices in east vs. western Canada. It is those in the east with cheap power, that are forcing the west to switch to use a fuel that is twice the cost, let alone the fact that trying to drive an EV in a cold western winter is an unreliable frozen useless dead weight. One needs a spare ICE means of transportation as a backup. What about those communities stranded up further north, waiting months for spring to come for the sun to rise above the horizon to warm their solar panel?
Globally, there are many more huge discrepancies, where energy is scarce in one place, and abundant in others.
in Europe, thanks to the Ukraine war and damage from green initiatives, the fuel supplies for transportation and electrical generation have barely met their needs through the winter, and only thanks to a warmer than normal season. Europe in now dependent on LNG import lifelines. Energy costs have risen to permanently destroy many European industries such as steelmaking, fertilizer production, petrochemical, and manufacturing. Europe is now behoven to rely on imports for far more of their needs, and to pay world prices.
On the other hand, the new lower prices of Russian oil and products from the embargos are a big benefit for China, India, and many Asian and African countries, a welcome savings for them. The shadow tanker fleet and STS transfers are busy, now competing with Iran.
Meanwile, the rest of the world must pay global pricing for oil and products, which is tipping the balance of manufacturing and production cost from the west to the east. It is of our own doing, with our virtue signaling ways, favouring those with cheap energy costs free of carbon taxes.
Looking forward, China's population growth and demographics project a declining population and workforce, and the repeat of double digit growth is unlikely. In India, the opposite is true and will shortly be the most populated country on the planet. India will replace China as the engine of growth, and their appetite for cheap fossil fuel demand and use grows unabated.
In addition to the traditional auto industry, plants there continue to churn out hundreds of thousands of ICE tractors which will help increase their food production and for the export markets. The entire tractor costs only about $5000, so it is very affordable. I compare that with the cost of the cable alone to bring power to my garage from my utility room panel for my EV's in the future is $4000.
Canada is blessed with abundant energy, with the third largest deposit of oil in the world. We also have huge amounts of natural gas. If we were able to develop our gas exports and have the infrastructure to pipe and liquefy it, it would displace the massive increases in coal use for power generation, and solve the global climate crisis. Yet we choose to pick a far dumber path by hobbling ourselves with forced EV adoption, continued lack of pipeline egress, regulatory hurdles, and carbon taxes.
While we have the keys to unlocking massive reductions in global emissions in our pocket, we think we will save the world by cutting our 1.5% contribution to CO2 emissions by a couple hundredths of a percent.
How stupid is that?
Regardless of today's rhetoric, the fact is that in Canada, we have what the world needs. I think it is just a matter of time that global demand and shortages in this messed up energy market will cause us to rethink our poor energy policies which has added so much more in increased costs with little net climate benefit. Eventually, we will develop it. I have very little faith that the current direction we are going is sustainable going forward, and cracks are starting to appear at the same time we head toward a difficult economic and fiscal cliff.
This is why I am long Canadian oil.