Refineries that matter to SuncorLast new US refinery was built in 1977
Last new Canadian refinery was built in 1984
Why? Oil consumption in Canada and the USA has flat lined since 1980.
Huff Post provided the analysis in a 2012 article:
/why aren't we building refineries Of course Saudi Aramco is spending billions of dollars in China to protect its market share. Of course China is letting them, especially now that Russia is blowing its brains out.
Does anyone actually believe that the Saudis or Russia for that matter whose entire economies are based upon oil are going to let a high cost producer like Canada take their market share without a huge fight? No problem for Suncor though as Trudeau has Alberta's back!
27 million new cars per year are being sold in China each year. At the moment, China is only producing about 14 million new EV's per year but that is going to change in a hurry as companies like BYD and 100 other Chinese EV companies ramp up production at a staggering pace.
China is adding energy production any way they can find it for all facets of its expanding economy. At the same time, China is leading the world in developing renewable energy as China doesn't want to be reliant upon anyone for its energy needs. Europe is working towards the same goal,
When it suits China's needs, the non-renewable energy production facilities will be shuttered one by one.
Don't think for one second that China and the rest of the world are not familiar with Tony Seba's work. The world already knows that you can build out a completely new solar/battery based energy structure for less than the cost of operating an existing hydrocarbon energy structure.
Contrary to what people are posting here, the third world is going to build its energy structure on solar/battery structure. Of course, the world will utilize short term energy options as the solar/battery storage strategy gets planned and implemented. Saudi Aramco knows this but are building the refinery in China anyway as you can count on the fact that they have done the math.
Environmental issues will continue to fill the headlines, but the energy transition will take place because of money.
Suncor share prices will continue to fluctuate, but over time it is inevitable that pricing cycles will continue to see lower highs and lower lows.
SU investors need to understand that the high dividend payout comes at very high cost.
The proposed 225,000 bpd expansion of Suncor's base camp in Fort McMurray is NEVER going to happen. If Trudeau doesn't kill the expansion, the SU accountants will.
The 1500 Petro Can gas stations are going to be selling much less gasoline in 10 years if any at all. That means the 1500 locations will have to be remediated and sold off for their real estate value unless a business case can be made to convert the stations to EV chargering centers.
The four Suncor refineries won't be producing gasoline and diesel and distillates in 10 years so they either need to be re-purposed or they will be shuttered.
I'm not making this stuff up.