RE:Refineries that matter to SuncorI was going to respond to Migraine's latest post but will respond to yours instead.
You have covered a lot of great points. Thanks.
In my original post/response to Migraine first post, upon retrospection, I guess I tried to be too brief and didn't make my point clearly enough.
To focus on just new investment and somehow creating the impression that all is well and that new investment in oil or anything else for that matter results in new capacity is misleading. Lots of investment (name any industry) merely replaces old facilities with new ones and with newer and more efficient technology.
In the case of China, I imagine that the Saudis have given China a sweetheart deal in order to ensure a market for their oil. The European Parliament has already passed a law banning the sale of ICEs starting in 2035 so their market there is going to shrink over time. California has already done the same thing. If Biden/Dems get get re-elected in 2024 expect similar legislation.
For China, with Saudi help, they will be building a new refinery using the latest technology and geared towards the characteriztics of Saudi oil. Rest assured that even if this results in some new incremental capacity in China in the short run, it won't be long before some outdated refinery in China will shuttered as this new refinery will be much more cost efficient.
Frankly, the problem, as I see it with the discussion here is that the fundamental question is not whether the world will still need oil for the next 30-50 years (it may well be the case) but as investors our objective is actually really simple - we want to make more money and reach our financial objectives.
So ask yourselves the simple question, will I make more money going forward in an industry that is facing a technological substitute and one where Governments around the world are legislating it out of existence or in an industry/industries with the wind at its back and has Government support?
I know what my answer is, Think deep and hard about what your answer to that question is. Your future depends on it!!!