Biden...Election...OilThere has been discussion here by some posters about it being better for Biden and Trudeau not to get re-elected.
In Canada, the current polls suggest that Trudeau will lose. Of course this could change between nowe and the election but one thing we do know is that our election will be fair and legal. This is in part due to our system of having an impartial organization in charge of the election. So right now a reasonable planning assumption is that there will be a change in Government in Canada which on balance should be a good thing for the oil industry.
In the US, while the polls show Trump in the lead by a bit, what often happens on election day is another thing. A major consideration in the upcoming US election is the impact of the illegal aliens that Biden has been letting into the country by the millions.
What has this got do with anything one might ask since only US citizens are allowed to vote...right?
The problem is that based on a recent SCOTUS decision, when someone fills out a form to get regstered to vote, it is against the law to check if they are a US citizen. So illegal aliens, if they chose to lie when filling out the form and say they are US citizens (and thank Biden for letting them into the US) they can get registered to vote. In fact, I have seen reports where illegals at the border are given voter registration cards by the Biden Administration and a social security number which can be used to get ID cards like a drivers licence.
Since the pollsters only poll US citizens, there is a really good chance that the current polls showing Trump ahead are fiction.
So what does this mean for investors (after all that is why we are here)??
Well a Biden re-election will guarantee continuing and growing annual budgetary deficits which will at some point tip the balance from stimulus to recession. It will also mean and a continuation of the conflict between fiscal and monetary p[olicy (read higher interest rates for longer). This needs to be monitored carefully by investors, especially those younger than me.
As well, if the result at the Presidential level is also reflected in down ballot votes and the Dems get solid control of the Senate and House as well the Presidency then expect a full court press on Green New Deal stuff and bad news for the oil the oil industry in the US. How this actually plays out could be a good or bad thing for Canadian oil investors. Again, something to keep an eye on.