Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

An opportunity of a lifetime?

[Marner16]

I originally posted this on the ENB thread, but I'm getting ready to add SU to my portfolio so I thought I would add the post here.

The phrase "opportunity of a lifetime" is over used by marketing people, just like MVP and GOAT are overused in sports. 

Is this the opportunity of a lifetime for investors?  I dunno, but I can make a pretty compelling arguement for why it could be.

1) The stock market increased 300% over ten years from the low of March 6, 2090 to the pre-pandemic high on the back of fiscal and monetary expansion in 2009 to save the economy. 

This time around, government intervention to save the economy from the pandemic could be as much as ten times as much as was injected into the financial system in 2009.

2) Personal savings have exploded during the pandemic among those that are not hanging on for dear life.  People have been putting off buying in order to create a financial safety net.  The longer that covid sticks around, the greater the pent up demand will be.  A perfect example of what pent up demand looks like could be seen this summer as the demand for pressure treated wood for decks and fences fueled by staycations in place of travel.  It was very difficult or even impossible to buy many deck products from Home Depot and other suppliers and the net result was an increase in prices of 40% over the summer. 

When the covid fear dissipates, people will start spending again.  Where will the money get spent?  I dunno, but I think it is pretty safe to say that the bigger public companies are getting bigger and that will fuel the stock market.   When the stock market eventually takes off, savers will be enticed to invest in the stock market as interest rates are going to be near zero for years to come.

3) On June 16th, 2020, the WSJ reported there was $4.6 trillion sitting on the sidelines in the money market waiting to be invested

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-exactly-how-much-money-is-sitting-on-the-sidelines-waiting-to-come-in-to-the-market-2018-12-27

4) Companies are getting leaner and meaner as they look for ways to survive the covid pandemic.  For instance, SU announced this week that they have completed cuts of $1 billion in operating expenses in 2020 along with $1.9 billion of Capex expenses.  When the pandemic fear eases, SU and many other companies that have tightened their purse strings will be well positioned for take off.

When the fund managers feel it is safe to re-enter the market, the market will move up in a big way.  Rising markets will drive investors to contribute to their 401k's and to their investment accounts which will fuel the next round of higher stock prices. 

I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm not sure that I need one.  Even a retail investor like myself can see the writing on the wall this time.

I have now re-positioned myself at about 80% cash (was 100%) after buying a chunk of ENB in the last couple of days.  I don't know where the bottom will be. 

There there is no doubt that I will miss the bottom, but I'm positioned to be ready to dive into the market when the metrics get silly.  

Questions that I'm thinking about today:

Will election day be the bottom as suggested previously by Jim Cramer? 

Will the market be filled with angst on Wednesday causing stocks to tumble if there is not a clear winner of the election? 

If the election result is still up for grabs on Wednesday, what are the chances that the market will punish the renewable stocks which have moved far ahead of the consensus analyst targets? 

I know this post is long but I do appreciate those that have taken a few minutes to read this.  I have no agenda and I'm not dellusional and think that I can move the share price in any way with my posts. However, much like the story of the little boy on the beach who throws a starfish back into the ocean, if my efforts can help even one person in their investment strategy, the few minutes it has taken to write this will have been worthwhile.

[shareswapper]

Agree, just wait for the Election to end and the Vaccines hit in December .....