Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Inventories still declining , OPEC no spare capacity

[Clemxb7]

World oil demand rises 2nd half of the year. 

Used to be when OPEC spare capacity got down to 3 or 4 million barrels WTI would rise and hold firm. Right now OPEC spare capacity is 1.6 million which will soon get immediately used up.

Eric Nutall on BNN
https://t.co/cSP3CIZPzb

[Oldnagger]

Here are the layest estimates on surplus global spare capacity from the EIA. Note the razor thin margin outside of OPEC control i.e. 280 kbpd Once the SPR is depleted OPEC will be in full control. They will not even need Russia !! Canada has become so marginal , that it is laughable to think that anyone will take us seriously , even if they ever once did !!

[Oldnagger]

Oops, forgot something  https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52879

[Mirko22]

it does appear Iran nuclear deal will be done with all the meetings in the past few days betwen Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabis and EU, Iran has tons of barrel of oil on tankers that can flood the oil market. I guess we will see the reaction to renewed hope of Iran nuke deal tomrrow.

[Oldnagger]

Seeing that the G7 has had only limited success in sanctionoing Russian crude, it seems the situation has probably been similar for Iranian crude (and Venezuelan at that ) More likely is that the power of sanctions has been to stifle Capex ,meaning there will be few increases going forward until the necessary time has elapsed upon restoration of capex (at least a year ,probably more )

[mrbb]

making oil deal with terrorist is a desperate effort for a short term relief as US is going into mid term election. Biden/democrat has no intention to revive US/Canada oil industry, they totally avoid talking to canadian oil, keeping Keystone pipeline on ice,  and bashing US oil companies.

[Clemxb7]

Yeah the 100 million bbls of floating storage won't all hit the market though a lot will. Remember though oil inventories in the USA are 250 million barrels below the 5 year average. As for increased production over and above what they are managing to sell on the black market already it probably won't be a real huge number. Not enough to make up for the 1 million barrel a day burn on the