Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

A must watch video for every investor IMO

[Obscure1]

Let me start with my apologies:
 
* Stephen Mark Ryan, the creator of the video is obnoxious and vulgar
* The video is about Tesla but the content has implications for all companies
* The video is more than 30 minutes long and drags from time to time and will probably offend you

Now for the reasons to watch it:

* Tony Seba (the creator of the content of the video) has absolutely nailed the concept of innovation and adoption rates
* After watching the video, you will understand that innovation happens exponetially in the form of a "S" curve as opposed to linear adoption.  That is why the so called experts (anaylysts, organizations such as the IEA etc) get it massively wrong year after year
* While the adoption of new innovation happens in the form of an "S" curve, the rate that the old technology that is being replaced also happens in the form of a reverse "S" curve. 
* The net result for established existing companies or industries that don't respond to innovation in time is that they become extinct. 
* The process takes about 20 years, but the bulk of the change happens in about ten years.

Why do I bring this up on a Suncor thread?

SU bought out Teck's minority interest in Fort Hills this week.  Based upon the selling price and the asset write downs for both Teck and Suncor, one would have to surmise that Tech basically gave it away. 

That should be great for Suncor.  Right?

Then why did the street punish Suncor.  Maybe punish is too strong a word.  However, if the deal was such a steal for SU, why was the SU share price dropping after the announcement when the price of oil popped up?  

The explanation from the street for SU's poor share price performance was due to the size of the writedown.  That's true.  However, why was the selling price so low in the first place when the price of oil is so high.  I think the video will help why.

[Experienced]

Great video....eloquently (hah) talks about the points I have been making in many posts here and revently. When I try to figure out something I try to look at it from both sides of the table.  In fact sometimes I actually get up an sit on the other side of my desk as an aid to think about the subject from the other side. I have invested in Teck on and off for decades.  Throughout that

[newcoin]

Could it be that Teck has has better places to put its money but SU doesn't? SU already owned 50%, so harder for them to get out. If they can get the other 50% at a discount (averaging down) it makes the investment look a lot better. SU is refocusing its future (we'll hear more on November 29). Properly administered, Fort Hills will be profitable for many years to come. "While the

[autofocus111]

newcoin "Could it be that Teck has has better places to put its money but SU doesn't?" TECK faces rising costs in a major copper project. I suppose the sale of their stake in FortHills will help cover that. >>>Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A | TECK.B) (NYSE: TECK) has raised its construction cost estimate for the Quebrada Blanca phase 2 (QB2) copper project in Chile by at

[Obscure1]

Here is Tony Seba's presentation.  It is 20 minutes (vs 33 minutes) and doesn't have the obnoxious but useful summary analysis by SMR {^youtubevideo|(width)425|(height)264|(rel)False|(url)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vhMcKvHo8|(fs

[mrbb]

here is part 2. FYI, i'm not against EV.  Everybody will have different take on the transformation  

[ailyn63]

very interesting video. thanks for sharing

[MigraineCall]

Sorry Obscure, but I'm not drinking this Kool Aid. SU dropped by only 2% relative to peers on the news, a reaction to finding out about a new Q3 charge, but no biggie in the grande scheme of things. Taking 1/4 of the Fort Hills shares at a nice discount offsets this sort term accounting entry, which if all goes right, gets to be even worse once the final 1/4 held by Total is absorbed for

[mrbb]

good gawd, you sound like an engineer. I thought we (or i mean americans) narrowly escaped catastrophe by ditching AOC's 'green new deal' which was projected to cost only $93 trillion (2019 $, for USA jurisdiction only) but i too believe we are still heading toward a brick wall.    https://economiccollapsenews.com/2019/02/25/aocs-green-new-deal-estimated-to-cost-93

[milan2]

Well said MigraineCall.   

[Clemxb7]

I agree with your line of thinking on this. I wonder if oil demand will be sort of like employment. No matter how many jobs become obsolete employment stays high as new categories of work emerge. I could see oil demand going down in the west while increase dramatically in developing countries. It is sadly a bit ironic that worldwide coal usage is at an all-time high right now – after decades of

[mrbb]

i have only glanced at this post of your, and also have not read subsequent posts yet for me make this short post on highlighted (red) point of your So you believe the market is always right?  Using tesla as example, TSLA share price were in the doldrum for 10 years (2010 to 2020) since IPO even though tesla made marked improvement yearly, then suddently the market woke up. Even now, tsla