Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Wow.....THAT was unexpected....

[mrmomo]

Not really sure WHAT to think about this deal. Does Suncor or Total come out the winner. At first glance looks like Total get out this "undesirable & unwannted" position and walks away like a total bandit. WHY? Did they JUST acquire psrt of the same interest from Teck just a few short months ago for VERY little money? I mean really.........WHAT"S Suncor thinking paying 3X the price for something that Total just got a short time ago from Teck?

Doesn't make sense to me UNLESS Suncor had no choice or say in the matter and there were some incentives or "encouragement" for them to do so. I think the REALLY big winner out of all this saga/drama out of the big three who were involved in this project is Total. So who's the big loser in all of this? Again, at first glance one would think Teck drew the short end of stick BUT in the long run it could be Suncor if things don't work out the way they think.

I bleieve this HUGE transaction & development more or less CONFIRMS that the AER debacle & their "supposed" re-assessment of Sunor's Fort Hills expansion to be nothing but a real "nothing berger" and a ruse, mabye just to appease those that oppose the project AND it more or less GIVES the green light for Suncor to move ahead with it's expansion of Fort Hills. WHY? Because i REALLY don't think for a moment that Suncor mgmt is that dense, dumb or ignorant to make a large commitment like that WITHOUT some "solid" gurantees from the Albertan/Ferderal regulators that this project would be free of any additional  hiccups, bumps in the road or any other metaphor you'd like to insert here and should move along smoothly now with NO MORE further delays.

The only thing i'm curious about is the following........Was this Total's plan from the VERY beginning OR did they shift their golas/intentions and something changed in the interim? What i would not give to be a fly on the wall right now in Total's HQ LOL. But my guess is that this was THE INTENT all along and it was planned this way from the start. Becuase it really didn't make ANY logical sense that Total would pick up Teck's interest for no apparent "valid" reason, especially AFTER they've indicated, for some time, they wanted OUT, BADLY, as well from this project which did not conform to their objectives & goals any longer.

What do you guys think?

GLTA

[Experienced]

Great question... Without crunching the numbers it is hard to say who got the best of the dealfroma finacial perspective. In looking at the PR, there is a bit of "sucking and blowing" going on. 1....there is the cookie saying that after the deal closes that they will raise the dividend by 10% so in the short run this could generate a pop in the SP. 2....The 5.5 billion (plus possibly

[mrmomo]

Excellent comments & revelations Experienced! On  Point 1 Yep, at least there's that positive aspect for those that are divvy fanantics, as any increase will most definitely appease their needs. But from my perspective, this line of thought (the divvy hunters) is kind of short sighted when one includes the long term implications of everything agreed to in this deal. On Point 2

[Experienced]

Regarding Point 3 The PR does not explicitly state this but only talks about Fort Hills and the other properties replcing lost porduction from the Base Plant and that further study will be required to replace the rest.  Frankly, IMHO there is only one conclusion that can be drawn from this when you connect the dots. Regarding Point 4 I would also add that a lot will depend in the long run

[mrmomo]

"Frankly, IMHO there is only one conclusion that can be drawn from this when you connect the dots." I see your point. But i think we will need more time & some type of confirmation by the regulators if this the case or not. As you know, things right now in Canada are very "grey" so to speak, as to the direction they're taking. "I would also add that a lot will

[meritmat]

Get a new government and base camp is back on the table 

[Experienced]

Not quite that simple. Governments of all stripes in today's day and age have to wait for the regulatory process to play out and then decide whether to accept the recommendations or not.  So even with a new government in Alberta and for that matter a new one in Ottawa, at best it would take years for the Base Camp to become a reality and even then it is still not a slam dunk. In the