Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Both SU and COP Played The Sitting The Partners Out Game

[ztransforms173]

- in retrospect, both Suncor Energy and ConocoPhillips played the long game and patiently waited until Teck Resources and TotalEnergies for SU and TotalEnegies for COP wanted out

- TotalEnegies for sure was long predicted {following their European brothers out of Canada) since they wanted to exit the oilsands and enter the international LNG and African light crude oil segments

- Teck Resources was a harder call since they wanted to stay in the oil business as diversification for copper, zinc and coking coal but poor bitumen economics {due both to egress problems and COVID demand destruction} and massive capital copper spending in Chile turned the tables around

- once again , Suncor Energy wins big in the bottom of the crude oil cycle just like they did for a 37% share of Syncrude in 2016

* just to put it out there, the new CFO of MEG Energy, Ryan Kubik; was the CEO of Canadian Oil Sands Limited from 2014 to 2016 when Suncor bought them out in 2016

* Ryan Kubik accused Suncor of using inside information in an opportunistic and exploitive fire sale buyout so there is bad blood there

z173

[Experienced]

zt...good post As I mentioned before, the oil industry is a small world and the key players often have a history where deals are made or lost not on economics but on past history and relationships.  Your comment about the new CEO of MEG is a case in point....something to keep an eye on for sure!!!

[matt2018]

I was a COS investor for many years.  I was more than happy when SU took them out. it was a fair offer for close to $7B (including well over $2B of debt). At the time (2016),a great deal of coin. They were a stand alone for many years. Didnt exactly set the market on fire.

[autofocus111]

SU stole COS. HSE tried (and failed) to steal MEG. CVE basically stole HSE. I see a pattern here, and if anything, CVE or SU will try to steal MEG if/when a bargain basement sale is on. Neither has a pressing need to acquire MEG at elevated valuations.

[mrbb]

"HSE tried (and failed) to steal MEG." I disagree with this one too I was a HSE investor for many years.  I was more than happy when HSE offer to buy MEG at $11 on Sept 30, 2018 because HSE has the spare downstream capacity to soak up MEG's production. MEG peaked on July 10, 2018 closing at $11.30.  Then MEG dropped to 6.94 on Sep 14, 2018.  A $11 bid by Husky

[autofocus111]

@mrbb I was a HSE and SU shareholder (and small position in COS) for many years as well. Maybe I should clarify that by steal I mean opportunistically move to acquire a company when it's in trouble and stock price is in a deep slump. SU did a hostile takeover of COS and it took a couple of raises and further deterioration in business conditions to convince the majority of COS shareholders to