Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Blind spots

[Obscure1]

It seems to me that some of the recent posters here either can't read, or only see what they want to see. 

For starters, I don't believe the ESG agenda at all.  I invest my money based on expected returns, not bleeding heart causes backed by political agendas.  

I don't care whether anyone here sells SU or not. I see my roll as an educator and dispensor of information. What people do with the information is up to them. 

Based upon the posts I have read by Experienced, I think he sees his role as being similar to mine, so what you have is a couple of old geezers who worked in the industry and want to give back.  

I have always been amazed at how much Europeans pay for gasoline but funny enough, we always end up paying a similar amount in Canada a year or two later.  Today, Parisiens are paying about 2.05 Euros per litre which is about Cdn$3 per litre.  

I just checked online and I see that the basic Ford 150 has a tank capacity of 23 gallons or 103 litres.  That means it costs about $175 to fill that pig up today.  It wouldn't surprise me in the least if that same fill up costs $300 in two to five years. In Ontario, the next carbon tax bump will be another $0.17 per litre.  

The Ford 150 Eco Boost uses 11.7 litres/ 100 km in ideal conditions.  Lets round that off to 12 litres.  If you drive 500km per week for work and or commuting, you are looking at 60 liters/wk.  At $1.70 per litre, that equates to just over $100 per week or $5,000 per year. 

Now, let's look at the cost of fueling a Tesla CyberTruck.  It is estimated that the Cybertruck will use about 26Kw/100 km. That means 500km will use about 130KW

The new ultra low overnight charging rate in Ontario is $0.024/Kw.  If you multiply that by 130Kw, you get a total of $3.12 per week.  Even at the standard overnight charging rate of $0.075/Kw, you would be still be under $10 per week. 

So, we are talking about $10 per week to fuel the Cybertruck and $100 per week for the Ford F150

When you consider that the CT has regenerative braking which results in far less brake wear and the fact that you don't need to do oil changes, you are pretty much looking at a saving of $5,000 per year. 

Ford just lowered the price of its basic F150 by $10,000 to $50,000.  The street is guessing the basic CT will sell for $50k which is why Ford dropped their pants.   

ICE vehicles typically about 150,000 miles in the USA.  A lot of businesses lease F150's for 4 years.  The CT is build to run 1 million miles and won't rust.  

You can't slide a sheet of plywood or drywall flat in the box of a F150.  You can in a CT.  

The CT comes with a retractable cover.  

Tesla tests it's CT's in the mountains in New Zealand and in Iceland under extreme conditions.  When Tesla created the Octovalve, winter driving stopped being an issue. 

Despite what Farley says about the CT being a yuppie camping vehicle, contractors are going to find out very quickly what's what.  I ran a construction company for 20 years so I have first hand experience with how cheap contractors are.  They will do the math whether you do or not.   

As you can see, none of the above has anything to do with ESG.    

Ford makes all of  its money on American truck sales now that their sales in China and Europe have fallen off a cliff. 

When construction guys see CT's appearing on job sites and see what they can do, and how little ithey cost to run, and how long it lasts, the response will be unlike anything the pickup truck industry has ever witnessed.  The Detroit 3 will either have to respond with EV's that can compete on price and performance or they will perish.  

The writing is on the wall folks.  You can keep your head in the sand if that works for you, but investing in SU, with its emphasis on refineries and gas stations is going to be a losing hand. As long as SU continues on its existing path, the only outcome for SU shareholders is ugly.

[meritmat]

  5000 thousand saving between oil changes and brakes a year?????   You racing in the Daytona 500)

[barneyj44]

Obscure also forgot to mention Electric Vehicle tires wear 20% faster then Ice vehicles do to acceleration. 

[ztransforms173]

- the TESLA Model 3 doesn't EVEN SUPPLY YOU with a SPARE TIRE like ALL new ICE automobiles do - what a RACKET ! z173

[mrbb]

actually due to higher weight of EV. Hard acceleration are extra 

[mrbb]

other extra costs not included in obscure1 analysis. Higher Insurance premium: 1. risk of fire that could burn down the house is higher than ICE 2.  light fender bender often lead to a total writeoff of the car .  Many minor damaged tesla with less 10,000 miles get written off.  Insurance is slowly catching up on this.  Tesla owners pay 74% higher premium as insurers often

[Oldnagger]

And when that magical day arrives when EV s have displaced all the IC s What do you think will be used to generate all the electric power required ? Solar , Wind , nat gas , diesel , heavy  fuel oil or coal Hint , less than 30 years ago the power generators were very reliant on heavy fuel oil and coal . Only the fracking of nat gas was able to substantially change that scenario. Yet Oil sands

[matt2018]

Appreciate the post Obscure.  Interesting comparison and I agree as improvements in the technology keeps advancing, EV's will play a role in the future mix. Where we differ is on the timeframe and the pace of market dominance. It could be a slow grind.  Some will make it, many others will fail. Also the infrastructure for all this also requires massive investment at a time when

[mrbb]

my issue is, this is obscure1's 3rd long post in SU board conveying the same message hammering the same points on EV benefits: cheap night power rate x EV power usage = cheap fuel cost comparing to a gas guzzler truck, and on entended brake pads life. He has yet find faults in all my reply to his posts. At least i presented fresh counter points on each of my replies. Yes, he's fishing for

[Kman86]

Would you expect anything by more from a self-admitted Tesla shareholder who has posted Tesla pumper Twitter accounts? That's not to mention the fact he isn't an SU shareholder.  Tesla has cut their prices numerous times and the market is only going to be further saturated in the future. As a result, profit margins are going to become significantly lower.  if we go into a

[integrity11]

Agree, I wish Obscure would do his educating on another board. I am surprised his battery boy sidekick Experience has not yet joined him this morning . Hopefully he ihas joined an EV board and will take Obscure with him.