EVERGREEN - SVB S/T OUTLOOKHere's a little 'cut and paste' re Evergreen's outlook for SVB (it's a steal at these levels):
Outlook and Catalysts: With an expected 141% increase in revenue and an EPS (fully
diluted) of $0.03 in F09 (vs. loss per share of $0.03 in F08), we are positive on the outlook for
Silverbirch. With the Company expected to reach its operating break-even point by the end of
Q1/F09, we believe Silverbirch is reaching an inflection point, which in our opinion, is not yet
reflected in the stock price. With the mobile business accelerating, it provides a base of
business ahead of the pending ramp of the game publishing. With MMORPG businesses
gaining traction, it is likely our top-line estimates for F09 could prove to be conservative.
Pending catalysts for the stock include:
• Launch and ramp-up of Crossfire multi-player online game (expected Q1/F09);
• Ramp-up of Metin2 – launched in Q1/F08 and currently at 2,000 concurrent users per
day (vs. 1,100 in previous quarter);
• Pending close of the Lighthouse Interactive acquisition – provides Silverbirch with a
portfolio of game titles, establishes Company as a game publisher, and diversifies risk
over longer time (i.e., reduces the need to constantly find a blockbuster game);
• Accretive acquisition either in game publishing, MMORPGs, or mobile content;
• Development or licensing of new games, new contract in mobile segment (especially
for higher margin mobile content services).