RE:Their buyback is a waste of money as it's piddly. HME is I can only guess why Petroperu report lower production figures, but Petrotal says January 2024 average production was 20,450 bopd. So they were ahead of guidance in January as they are guiding at 18,500 bopd for Q1.
In the presentations there's all sorts of modelling with projections out to the year 2040. So one reason to do this is to show that the dividend and capex is affordable down to $62 for all those years. So it's not a promise to pay a dividend until 2040, it's just saying that they calculate divi to be affordable. Most companies keep their modelling private I would say, but I think it's interesting to see. However, this modelling is not the same as guidance for the year ahead. Guidance numbers are based on detailed planning for projects etc for year ahead and guidance is signed off by the board.
So the guidance for this year is cautious. I don't think that's a bad thing. Better to beat a cautious guidance, than to miss it.
However I'm certain they will be targeting beating guidance. We know they can do over 20k bopd because they did it in January. And the guidance is only 2k bopd to Ecuador and 2k bopd to Yurimagaus by road, when presentation says capacity on these routes is 5k bopd each. If Petrotal can get 5k per day going to either of these routes during dry season it'd transform guidance.