RE:RE:RE:TCW - sell or hold?marcrobert wrote: you're missing the point, sell side analysts are important data points, they know what the valuation ranges are even if they don't see magic upside catalysts all the time. The point is stock is at a 2.5 year high, higher than where it was when oil was a lot higher. the risk is overshooting to the upside until fundamentals hit the stock price. tcw is a derivative trade on the price of the commodities, it should go up when capex goes up, and that depends on producers. I think the current price is way above fundamentals as seen in other sectors like airlines and cruises the recovery trade. i'm willing to hold on because everyone thinks growth is coming back huge in q2, but unless there's some kind of event on the horizon for tcw like M&A, i just don't see how their business improves that quickly even if oil continues to march higher. market can look out 12 or even 18 months, tcw looks like its pricing in good news for years
of course its pricing in good news, all stocks do that.. when all is said and done its expected there may not be a lot of drillers left.. but tcw will be one of them. are you shorting the stock or wanting to sell your position