Trican Well Service Ltd T.TCW

TCW - sell or hold?

[marcrobert]

Sitting on some major losses here, but tcw price is above most or all 12 month street targets and it hasn't been at this price since oct 2018. I could sell it and take a 46% loss, or hope to god that good ole secular anti oil sands themes doesn't come back too soon. My hope is that unless vaccine is a flop that wti tops 60 next year, but my fear is that tcw is ahead of itself, that oil sector catch up trade is already price in to the stock price  and tempts me to sell.

Any arguments for a path to 2.50 or 3? the street is around 1.37 average. I don't have any research notes on this, and i don't imagine next Q is going to be that exciting. is there a takeover premium priced in here?

[itsalie]

put in a stop loss at 1.60 and hope it never gets triggered.. 

[Mtklip]

Look at the long term chart. The energy cycle is coming back.

[klamaAAA]

..Long term... Can you please specify more prcise how long.?

[Mtklip]

No I can't, but I'd say 3-5 years. LNG and coal conversion to gas should help.

[HugeCrane]

Kind of agree but I'm thinking 2-3 years, maybe shorter.  There are so many positives pushing this up that it's hard to see why we would see a major retracement. Of course we're going to see stock price fluctuations, but we've already passed the covid bottom and demand can only go up. This is the beginning of a broader sector rotation. 

[Mtklip]

Well I hope so, I'm just afraid that the producers still don't want to spend money on new wells, the rig count is about 80 in the winter, used to be 500.

[HugeCrane]

Tbh I'd like to see a slower start to 2021 just because it would continue to squeeze balance sheets of other service companies and make it harder to pull equipment off the fence. Especially because most of them are operating on financing and not free cash flow.  The downside is it might take longer for my thesis to play out, as you mentioned before, but it will also provide extra upside

[mlcb2525]

Follow Teddy Gambino on Twitter he adds a lot of value added commentary.  I am not a big time investor but I read what he had to say and did my own DD and ended up buying 22K shares in TCW in (half on June 4th and half on Oct 15th). I have done very well and I think TCW has more legs. No debt, market should have no where to go but up, as I believe oil has to increase $60-$70 range at least

[EstevanOutsider]

Did "the street" tell you to add Trican in March or April when it was 40 or 50 cents?  Of course not.  Price targets are garbage.  As noted, markets are forward looking and smart money like Canoe's Rafi can see Q1 as a busy period and late into 2021 as a possible boom period. I am glad I did not listen to "the street."  My price target is $5 in 2021

[Mtklip]

I read some of Teddy Gambino's posts. For what it's/he's worth, we are both looking to hold TCW 3-5 years.

[marcrobert]

my 2 cents: the problem with "3-5 years" it's like looking at fossil fuels in a vacuum. we've seen in the past 5-6 years the destruction of investor demand and sentiment for oil stocks, especially canada. No matter how great the demand/supply dynamics are going forward, you have to factor in the rise of the hatred for fossil fuels, and ESG investing. That's partly why many of

[Mtklip]

3-5 years is for the natural gas, LNG to help the business. TCW is involved in natural gas more than oil if I'm not mistaken.

[marcrobert]

you're missing the point, sell side analysts are important data points, they know what the valuation ranges are even if they don't see magic upside catalysts all the time. The point is stock is at a 2.5 year high, higher than where it was when oil was a lot higher. the risk is overshooting to the upside until fundamentals hit the stock price. tcw is a derivative trade on the price of the

[itsalie]

of course its pricing in good news, all stocks do that.. when all is said and done its expected there may not be a lot of drillers left.. but tcw will be one of them. are you shorting the stock or wanting to sell your position

[marcrobert]

like i said, my cost is 3 bucks and i'm worried the current price already reflects a couple of years of upside and for 5 years, every time people thought oil was taking off, it got hammered. so that's why i'm thinking about selling at a 40% loss to take advantage of a 2.5 year high. the insider selling does he think that too?

[itsalie]

well thats always a tough call, the easiest way around that is to put in a stop loss, if it gets triggered so be it.. if not ride it out. 

[marcrobert]

my comment isn't about trade mechanics - stop loss isn't the answer, it's about investment strategy and outlook. thanks