RE:RE:RE:TCW - sell or hold?my 2 cents:
the problem with "3-5 years" it's like looking at fossil fuels in a vacuum. we've seen in the past 5-6 years the destruction of investor demand and sentiment for oil stocks, especially canada. No matter how great the demand/supply dynamics are going forward, you have to factor in the rise of the hatred for fossil fuels, and ESG investing. That's partly why many of our mid or even diversified producers are having trouble maintaining an erection. just not enough people want to own them and i don't expect that to change. I think it's an increasing factor that makes it even more difficult to be positive, because we don't see people beating down the doors to buy all these screaming values in the oil patch. from painful experience, the values keep on getting better and without tons of buyers coming in, hard to see how the stocks can get the love they deserve. I got wiped out in pengrowth, and this is exactly what nutall has been saying for a couple of years. he's more optimistic than me, but he works in the sector.
My view is that 2021 could be a good year for producer stocks IF everything goes as planned, i.e. virus actually under control with vaccine, economic explosion in q2 and q3, and every body gets back to normal by the fall. Already, we're seeing that vaccinations are behind schedule in many countries and pandemic causing lockdowns. how long is the stock market's going to ignore this? If those pieces fall into place and more stinulus etc. then arguably wti could hit high 50s mid year, maybe 60 and change by year end, but I would probably use the strength to pare back any profiits i have in oil patch because over production in the us and here will be around the corner.