Toronto-Dominion Bank T.TD.PF.M

td

[bartno12001]

Guys I will tell you about a meeting I had with an investment advisor from royal today. He is an old friend of mine and i have known him for 20+ years. I had coffee with him today and one thing led to another. I started talking to him about TD and he told me his opinion. I know most of you wont believe it but i thought i might as well tell it in case some of you are interested.

he thinks td is significantly undervalued. It should be over $100 if this US AML issue wasnt around. however with that in mind he thinks it might a few years before TD can recover. Here a few scenarios of what i got from him. its very important to see what the US AML penalty would be. if its US$500 million - 1 billion that is a positive sign. he was saying that even if its US$2.5 billion that will also be ok and TD stock could potentially even recover 10% that same day. however if the penalty is higher like US$4 billion or US$5 billion or even higher like US$10 billion the stock will come down. easily 5% or more. He also thinks TD will have to spend a lot in the next few years on AML and that will affect their earnings. so even if its a positive news on AML it will still take time for the stock to recover to 100+ and he was thinking 2 years. however over 2 years TD will get through this and any penalty even US$10 billion can be paid by TD.

he was saying that TD is slow though in handling any matters and he doesnt think TD will resolve the US AML issue until September 2024 even. His opinion is that the markets are going to come down by June and thats when the Cad central bank will reduce their interest rates. he doesnt think US central bank will reduce interest rate till september even and that will the likely reason why market will come down as everyone is anticipating US to cut rates which he doesnt think will happen until Q3 of this year.

overall TD is a great stock but its dead money until they resolve the US AML part. it is most likely going to go down if markets go down and can even go as low as 70 if the AML penalty is huge. so tread carefully and buy what you can afford to hold. 

i am hoping that all the buying of shares that TD has done work out for us and its good news. hopefully news turn out ok and we get in the mid 80s to 90 even by end of this year.

[Satchmo77]

too bad TD dropped ---so I dumped it---they also have too many cashiers ans managers

[bartno12001]

what a call by my friend. just amazing! i will probably try to meet him again in June or July and see if i can get some free advice.  wish i had more money.

[Puma1back]

TD & Laurention are the only 2 banks that are below their 50dma.  other CDN majors are all retracing their over this month but TD has completely hammered through that tech point. Don't see anything changing that and since it has shifted from net accumulation to net selling i suspect we will easily test the lows. the AML decision would seem to be weighing heavily perhaps and if

[bartno12001]

Just amazing what my friend told me. So far everything he has said is correct. He said September is when td will resolve aml. Let's see. But stock is slowly coming down to what he was saying

[newcoin]

You said before that you would try to see your friend again in late June or July and get an update. Please post what you find out. We need all the help we can get trying to figure out where this gem is going and how long it will take. Thanks to your friend.

[newcoin]

Also, we need to remember that the exdividend date is July 10, for a dividend of $1.02. Could get complicated?

[bartno12001]

Sure. I will ask him if he's free on this long weekend. Would be good to meet him. 

[bartno12001]

Ok. I will meet him this Saturday. I will let you guys know in the afternoon 

[newcoin]

That's fantastic!! Looking forward to hearing his thoughts.

[bartno12001]

So I met my friend today for dinner. Other things aside a very detailed discussion guys and i have tried my best to remember everything and write here.    Obviously he says there is a lot of noise right now and people are coming out saying etc etc but no one knows. He himself says that TD is keeping a very tight lid on everything so no one really knows. But he gave me an example. He

[newcoin]

Excellent reporting. Thank you very much for having the meeting with your friend and reporting in such detail to the board. It sounds like your friend is very wise about the whole thing. I guess I feel that way because that's what I think is happening as well. It gives me confidence to go ahead and buy at these levels. I'm also looking forward to the dividend coming in a few days. Again

[ecolo101]

Ex dividend is on July 10 so we will have the beginning of July to take a decision based on SP direction... could we lose the dividend face value just the following next day? With this drop so far? time will tell.... i own glta dyodd

[bartno12001]

Thanks for saying that and no problem. He's been in the investment industry for some time and has done well for himself. I try to keep in touch but as you know we live in a busy world and it's hard sometimes. Nevertheless I am glad that I met him. Overall after talking to him I feel quite confident and relaxed. Just the clarity I got is really helpful. Let's see what happens and I am

[Ocalaman]

TD may indeed fix thier aml issues but still will not know what financial and growth penalties the SEC and Dept of Justice will impose. 2-3-4B$ will be paltry if combined with growth or USA acquistion restrictions are placed on them. Theres a good rieason Fitch downgraded thier rating form Stable to Negative.Reputational risk is the the most negative in Canadian banking history. WFC never has

[bartno12001]

are you seeing the same chart as me. Wells fargo right - symbol WFC. you tell me where and what hasnt been recovered by wells fargo

[bartno12001]

the picture doesnt up on stockhouse. anyway anyone can pull up the chart of wells fargo of 20 years and see for themselves. not sure what you are seeing ocalaman. 

[Ocalaman]

bartno, the reference to WFC was that its stock performance over,say 10 years gas been much lower most other banks.  For a much fuller explanation and history check out Perplexity search engine and type in wfc performance compared to other banks since thier problems. I used the research access  I have to make the statement I did,  but perplexity explains it in much better  

[bartno12001]

thanks Ocalaman for the clarification. agreed