Lets be clear, we've ALL had to move our position on Trogarzo, from when theratech made the deal, to approval and thru sales. So whether you're a whiner or an optimist you didnt quite get it right. Sceptically, critically updating ones position is a healthy thing to do, one Nature article might be useful but it doesnt answer every question. So we keep digging.
I like the diversity of experience and opinion on this board, hopefully the whiners and the incurable optimists will continue to contribute, both are informing my position.
jfm1330 wrote:SPCEO, as I told you before, to me you are the best poster here, but you know, a whiner is on earth to whine. I think that I would join that small chorus on only one point. It's a bit annoying to see that you are always very optimistic for the next thing to come, but kind of dropping the torch rapidly on the thing you were very optimistic about in the past. Trogarzo is an approved drug now in the two biggest markets in the world. That's a sure thing with great value. I am not overlooking the opportunity in HIV-NASH, but there is still a lot of uncertainties there. A lot of things that could go wrong. My point is that puting Trogarzo as a relatively minor asset now and all the focus on the supposedly next big thing is not very helpful in my view. I think it helps depicting Thera as a company of losers always waiting for the big game changer. Sorry. I think Trogarzo was the game changer, but patience is required to get the full benefit out of it. Trogarzo is the thing that will allow the company to pursue Egrifta F8 in HIV-NASH, or at least, to do it without flood diluting the actual shareholders.
SPCEO1 wrote:428 patients was my guess, not 460. That is a very low number versus our original expectations for where they would be at this point. But on the bright side, Bloomberg says they added basically 10% to that total in a single month in September. So they do appear to be growing nicely off an unexpectedly low base, which gives some credence to JFM1330's argument for a long slow advance to 2,000 patients in the US. I hope that happens but I also know that the stock price will likely be more determined by the progress towards HIV NASH opportunity from here on. Cancer may well add to that in a couple of years and you never know if the companby will add new produccts also. Or maybe they will just gobbled up by another NASH player at some point.