RE:RE:Nothing changes All we've really had so far is really updates to tell us where we are in the trial not what this drug is capable of (or not). We know 420 is too far and they 300 is a potentially dose moving forward. That's about it. And getting that info is adding 3 or so months to the process. It's still a fact they need to reach an end to this expansion phase before they can start putting the facts together and present them in public.
I've been trying to go back through the early news flow for Erhertu. The first data went public for the dose escalation 14 months after the start of the trial and 2 months after enrolling the final patient. At that point they were reporting 7 partial responses from 20 patients. Nothing had been said prior to that. Maybe a company that size can afford to control news flow that much but it's also true this is often standard practice. Data is released at the end. Our problem is the end keeps getting put back. Btw I'd love THTX to have that many responses but I'm not expecting it, it shows what's possible though.
https://www.daiichisankyo.com/media/press_release/detail/index_3402.html
JFM seems to have forgotten all this and when you boil it down he's just ranting on why we aren't at the end yet.
I just don't think the updates so far have really been intended to tell us what is possible with this drug, they've largely been about updating on progress through the trial and managing and re-managing timing expectations. A lot of the angst here is about being sick of the waiting or expecting these updates to deliver more.
Wino got this right first time and many (including Doug Loe) agree with him. From what we learned last week the most important question is whether 300 is a possible effective dose. In the absence of data the best answer is possibly yes.
SPCEO1 wrote: Given that the bubble has been popped, retain investors have been hammered and the bull market is gone too, the chances of a really good stock price response to any positive information TH might report in the weeks ahead is far less than it once was. Since TH still has no effective research coverage and has yet to hire a IR person (I am sure all noticed an LSA was the MC on the conference call), it is not clear to me how the stock will get the sponsorship it needs to move significantly higher on good news. The trading volume recently has been totally dreadful as well as it is clear few other than ourselves are paying much attention to TH. Our CEO has done a lot of positive things but he has not even come close to fixing these issues with the marketing of the stock and the environment to now do so is much more difficult than it was through most of his now nearly 2 year tenure. From my perspective, it is a really big failure. He has given us the ONO, lower analyst coverage, lower trading volume and no sponsorship of the stock - if the Grumpy Grader came out from hibernation the only grade he could possibly give would be an F-. Since we are the people our CEO actually works for, it is hard to understand how this has not been a higher priority for him to get sorted out. And the board member added to appease grumpy shareholders has also not shown to be able to convince Paul of doing things more successfully either. Since Paul joined TH, the stock price has gone nowhere even though he has significantly improved the prospects of the company. In the end, if the stock price does not reflect the improvement, we may need a new CEO who has a better grasp on tying improving trends at the company to improving trends in the stock price.
The defense the company gives is that TH has greatly outperformed the XBI over the last year. Unfortunately, we cannot eat relative performance - we need the stock price to actually rise.
Bucknelly21 wrote: Despite learning many valuable lessons from the market and some analysts thera continues on the same non effective path in regards to transparency and market engagement. Do we really think that even if they get good results from the 1a/b that they will be able to capture the appreciation that would be due? Idk even if a Chinese partnership is announced they have not shown me they are capable of doing a good deal. I hope im wrong but im just going off past experience