RE:RE:RE:RE:Quick Summary Good post MAC7824. I agree the confidence/positivity is normal for a board and management so we can't read too much into what they say. Even if things are looking a little bleak (and I don't think reality is bleak with oncology) management still wants to believe that the good news is around the corner just like us investors. They too will have confirmation bias. Christian is great at what he does. He has poured a ton into the program. Do you think even if he were seeing things go a bit off course in the trial he would just accept it? Or would he rather look back at his clinical data for reassurance? Could that be what is going on? Maybe I don't know it is all speculation but there are many narratives we can spin and until we see the hard convincing data in humans that is what it all is... just speculation.
Personally I am frustrated with the slowiness and delays. It is hard to sit by and watch our investment just sit and languish without knowing for certain what is going on behind the curtains and likely Thera is also trying to understand the data and get true sense of how the drug is working. Again many narritives. It is just too early and things move to slow for us investors who have been patient for a very long time with the company.. and so we wait a bit longer.
MAC7824 wrote: First time poster, long time reader. Invested in THTX (formally THERF) since 2014. I appreciate all of the insight from the posters as it has been very helpful to keep my attention on this company since THTX has done a very poor job of communicating.
I totally agree with this post, JFM. One sense I have gotten from this board is that we have been hopeful for "preliminary signs of efficacy" from Phase 1a for around 6 months now. Around that time, I spent time researching how many other companies going through a Phase 1a with a FDA fast-track designation actually release "preliminary signs of efficacy" for a trial focused on safety, and found it was incredibly rare for a company to do so. Additionally, I do not agree with this board trying to glean bits of truth from management regarding preliminary signs of efficacy, as one of the primary jobs of externally facing employees (CEO, CFO, etc.) of THTX is to act as a salesman of the company. Every company tries to sound optimistic during their earnings calls, and that is their job to do so. I think it is foolish to expect that a company that is new to the oncology scene would be the rare exception to release any signs of efficacy prior to the Phase 1b being totally finished. The wise company would hold off on releasing any data until it is absolutely bullet-proof, and I expect THTX to do that.
Having said that, I am still optimistic that THTX is on-to something in oncology. As I have read on this board previously, there are MANY companies that do not make it passed Phase 1a safety trials in oncology, and I think that should be celebrated. I anticipate there will be a small price bump in the stock price once the Phase 1a PR is sent out. I do not, however, based on today's call, believe that this board should hold out any hope for efficacy data prior to the end of Phase 1b, and anticipate THTX will shift it's tone from focusing on pre-clinical efficacy to potential future avenues now that TH1902 is deemed as safe. I also agree with JFM's point regarding the explanation around repeatedly missing timelines. Based on the evidence we have thus far, what expectation is there that the Phase 1b will not be delayed significantly? My approach to THTX's timelines over the last eight years has been to listen to it, and add at least 3 months (and sometimes 6 months) to each timeline they provide, which has been more in-line with reality.
Thank you all for the posts and I will go back to just reading now!