RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Getting rich or getting a return playing devil's advocate
1- Dramatic increase in the sales volume of the legacy drugs combined with the added revenue from new distribution agreements or in licensing of drugs
I don't think he described a DRAMATIC increase in sales. It sounded more like the rare disease situation where you go out a work for each new prescription and then through engagement with docs/patients you wringe out every possible cent from each script. Sounds more like a steady increase.
2- Cash infusion by a Chinese partner ---a small rabbit but would improve confidence and of course the cash position
One thing absent from yesterday.
3- Good results in Phase 1b in at least one indication which would pave the way for a Partnership agreement with a large pharma
Not clear when this would happen. The suggestion was taking one indication through to approval is relatively affordable so there's less to stop them going alone for a longer time. If Trodelvy is the model then Pharma jumped in after approval in that case.
4- Resolution of the F8 formulation which is a pre requisite for the initiation of the Nash trial with a Partner
Paul was focused on externals. I'm pretty sure he laid out a scenario where somebody (let's say Madrigal) gets an approval and then Pharma come looking for a late-stage ready asset. There is probably more than just some internal technicals that need to be resolved before this becomes an active program.
palinc2000 wrote:
My list below of possible rabbits is unchanged after yesterday's Fireside Chat
BTW it is time to recognize that Paul is a Builder on solid foundations .... I know that nobody is happy with the Share Price but eventually everything will come together .... We are in good hands with Paul!!
palinc2000 wrote:
As you know rabbits reproduce at a rapid pace!!!
Here are possible rabbits from the same hat
1- Dramatic increase in the sales volume of the legacy drugs combined with the added revenue from new distribution agreements or in licensing of drugs
2- Cash infusion by a Chinese partner ---a small rabbit but would improve confidence and of course the cash position
3- Good results in Phase 1b in at least one indication which would pave the way for a Partnership agreement with a large pharma
4- Resolution of the F8 formulation which is a pre requisite for the initiation of the Nash trial with a Partner
SPCEO1 wrote: Can the same rabbit be pulled out of the hat twice? I hope so but am doubtful. It is unfortunate as the drug likely works in NASH but there must be something else going on that is preventing other drug companies from stepping up and pursuing it. I have specualted that it is a patent issue but it may just be the big drug companies do not trust the FDA as it is currently run to back a NASH solution. The rules surrounding getting a NASH approval, the need for biopsies, etc. may be the real issue keeping interest low in NASH. That being said, there has been some interest as indicated by t he twor ececnt deals between big pharma and smaller drug companies for NASH.
palinc2000 wrote: Not enough weight on Nash here imo...This could turn out to be the rabbit out of the hat
palinc2000 wrote: I am staying invested here because I have strong convictions that I will get a good return on what I have invested in THTX even if TH-1902 turns out to be a dud ....If Thtx wins the Lottery with TH-1902 that would turn out to be fantastic returns
I see that most(not all) here are only looking to get rich iin a very limited time period ...
These are 2 different investment thesis .... mine creates a lot less anxiety but I have no problem with those who have a different view