Tranche 3 by end 2023I have said that it seemed like a reach to get the F8 approved by the end of 2023 in order to get the extra year of interest only payments on the Marathon loan and the extra year on the term of the loan. Yesterday Paul indicated they would file the F8 as soon as the water situation is cleared up which the FDA is still saying on their website will be by October. If that all holds up and there are no delays, they could have the F8 approval in hand by the end of 2023. Still a big "if", but certainly possible.
TH also would need to get to $90 million in trailing year revenues, so that would likely require an acquisition of some sort between now and then of revenues. The risk is they do a bad deal to acquire revenues just to be sure they meet that goal and are able to take down tranche 3 and trigger the benefits of doing it a bit early.
Of course, if they end up with three 25 member cohorts in the phase 1b and half of the patients in those cohorts see nice benefits from TH-1902, then all of the loan related things may become irrelevant since raising new equity on attractive terms as well as partnership capital would likely become a more preferred route to raise money. With a phase 2 trial likely requiring $40 million or more (can't see how they could get a registrational phase 2 trial done near the low end of Paul's cost estimate) they will need capital. Since the brokers know that, they would likely start recommending TH's stock soon as good cancer data is available in order to have a chance to be involved in any potential capital raise.
Now they could pull down the remaining amounts on the Marathon loan and raise less equity. And they could renegotiate the Marathon loan to up the amount they could borrow to finance a phase 2, but that seems unlikely unless they (and especially Marathon) were really very, very confident about the outcome of the phase 2 trial. If you knew you had a huge winner on your hands, debt financing would be ideal for shareholders. But you need to get that call right.