RE:P2 TH1902First, it is worth remembering that almost every drug trial for every commpany takes longer than initally expected, or so it seems.
My best guess as the timing we would all hope to see goes something like this. Tomorrow, or sometime soon, we get a PR telling us they are applying for a protocol expansion in one cancer type, let's say ovarian for arguments sake and since ovarian was one of the cancers in today's press release. So, that would mean they would need to sign up 25 women which would likely be 15 - 18 more than they already ave in the phase 1b trial for ovarian. Let's assume it takes them until November 15th to get the last ovarian patient recruited. Twelve weeks after that brings us to February 15th for that portion of the extended phase 1b to end. Let's further assume the results are good on those patients and they therefore move into phase II. I am going to guess that will take a couplle of months to get that phase II started, so now we are talking about April 15th before the phase II gets started. If the results have been good in the extended phase 1b portion of the trial in ovarian, that phase II trial might fill up pretty quickly leading to results by the end of 2023. If those results are good, then the FDA would be in a hurry to approve the drug in early 2024.
That is likely the best case scenario or something close to it. Reality typically is a bit harder and longer!
Wino once posted about the price moves seen when good phase 1 results are seen, when good pahse 2 results are seen and when good pahse III results are seen. I do not remember the actual numbers but a big jump typically occurs on the announcement of good phase 1 numbers but an even more significant jump in the share price occurs when good phase II results are released. In THTX's case, however, since the market has thus far been unwilling to give any value for TH-1902, we might see quite a big jump based of off good phase 1 results, bigger than normal, simply because the stock has not yet reacted in any way to the cancer news thus far as TH-1902 has progressed through pre-clincial work and completed a successful phase 1a. Right now, you are getting the cancer opportunity for free as THTX's market cap really only accounts for the legacy drugs, if that.
TH1902 wrote: Where does a move into Phase 2 take the share price? And how soon could that happen?
Was tempted to add today, lets see if we get continuation of this move in the coming days, seems we are on nobody's radar or very few.