RE:RE:RE:P2 TH1902Excellent, thank you both. Wild to think that Thera is under $300M MC, we need more eyes and some more good cancer news...hopeful for some exciting days ahead
Wino115 wrote: Analysis from looking at the IMMU movement and then later looking at around 6 other instances of a companies first cancer indication approval (some were ADCs, some weren't) showed a roughly 5x stock movement in the Phase 1 and through Phase 2. Then phase 2 into phase 3 saw another 4x for those that got approved (in this case they were all approved) . The latest takeover multiple on projected revenues based on last 5 years of oncology takeovers per Barclays is around 6.5x revenues. If you look over the last 2 years or so, the deals are more like 10x revenues. I will update those next time I see their table.
I think the way you should look at it is not what stock price or movement we may see, but does the comp analysis market caps show. Like SPCEO says, THTX at $250mil mkt cap is a low starting point. You should think about what is the potential revenue market each therapy they see efficacy on is. For instance, breast, melanoma, lung are large markets ($1bil + peak revenues). Thyroid, endometrial, etc are less ($200-$500 mil). Each indication going into a P2 or P3 would add more. That's when THTX could start looking more like a SeaGen than a single cancer player. While the 5x and 4x is a simplistic way to look at it, justifiable market cap based on comps and potential peak revenues is what the market will ultimately reflect.
SPCEO1 wrote: Wino once posted about the price moves seen when good phase 1 results are seen, when good pahse 2 results are seen and when good pahse III results are seen. I do not remember the actual numbers but a big jump typically occurs on the announcement of good phase 1 numbers but an even more significant jump in the share price occurs when good phase II results are released. In THTX's case, however, since the market has thus far been unwilling to give any value for TH-1902, we might see quite a big jump based of off good phase 1 results, bigger than normal, simply because the stock has not yet reacted in any way to the cancer news thus far as TH-1902 has progressed through pre-clincial work and completed a successful phase 1a. Right now, you are getting the cancer opportunity for free as THTX's market cap really only accounts for the legacy drugs, if that.
TH1902 wrote: Where does a move into Phase 2 take the share price? And how soon could that happen?
Was tempted to add today, lets see if we get continuation of this move in the coming days, seems we are on nobody's radar or very few.