RE:RE:National Bank CommentsNBF is the only firm that wrote anything on that news.
The market cap of THTX is about $37 million - it actually still gets more coverage at this point than I would have thought it would. But it doesn't make economic sense for analysts to spend much time on it at this time. Hopefully, TH-1902 will work really well and that will change. Until then, however, news like that in yesterday's PR is going to be largely ignored by analysts and institutional investors since they really cannot buy a $37 million market cap stock trading clsoe to $1. THTX just has to grind the basic stuff out and hope to catch a bid from the retail side while they await the cancer results, which is what they appear to be doing.
If TH-1902 fails, THTX still has impressive upside, as iidncated by the analyst target prices which are all several hundred percent above the current stock price. That will come as they pay down the debt assuming they can keep Egrifta sales, in particular, growing. The faster the sales growth for Egrifta, the faster the debt melts away and the quicker the stock price move higher.
They may need to refinance the debt as well, which they should be able to do if their cash flow continues to improve. If they do a deal before the end of the year for a new drug and borrow the third tranche from Marathon to pull that off then they can postpone the principal payments on the Marathon deal starting from July 2024 to July 2025. The terms of any deal would determine whether this is a good strategy but it would give THTX more time to build up its cash position before starting to repay the debt.
As we have seen following the lenghtening list of favorable press releases since early September, the stock is being ignored by investors and none of that good info is moving the needle, even though it should. Hopefully, that will change, but I am assuming the stock is dead money until we hear TH-1902 results. If they are very good, the stock price could rocket higher. I think investors may be too concerned about THTX going belly up as that does not seem likely. So, as best I can tell, it is an option on the upside for TH-1902 without real downside since they have already positioned the company to survive if TH-1902 fails. Admittedly, there is uncertainty about the company's survival still as if something caused Egrifta sales to go badly they would be in a tough spot. So far, however, Egrifta sales seem to be doing reasonably well.
palinc2000 wrote: Spceo could you post research reports ftom others