RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Soleus I think it would be fair to also say had they sold half as much Trogarzo as they forecasted they would, then the convert would not have been a problem. In fact, it would have been a very good financing. So, the problem as I see it was not the financing via a convert but the fact they got their forecasts fro Trogarzo disastrously wrong. In fact they have pretty much gotten all of their forecasts and guidance wrong over many years. Had they been closer to reality with their Trogarzo (and Egrifta) forecasts, they would not have chosen to finance with the convert. But I suppose at least the fact they chose to do the convert shows us they likely believed their own forecasts at the time and were not lying to us, they were simply overoptimistic.
palinc2000 wrote: You keep railing against the last Financing which is a direct consequence of the Convert and the non dilutive Marasthon deal which you both applauded...Had they diluted instead of doing the Convert compounded by re imbursing the Convert with Debt rather than thru equity we would have been way better off.You solution of preferred shares with probably a cumulative dividend would have had also a very detrimental effect on Common shares especially in case of non success of Th 1902 which I feel is the outcome they have to use for planning purposes,
Now we know that the dilution was 50 %...Nobody likes to face such high dilution but it does look a lot better than 100% dilution...
I am mad as hell also at management not being pro active in dealing with the blunder of the Convert to the point where they had to go with Marathon and giving them the guns and the munition to wipe us all....I dont understand why they kept the CFO on board who was also the CFO at the time of the Convert ...I am mad at the BOD which I voted against all of the Members except Levesque ,Arena and Trudeau... I am mad at Paul for not being transparent and probably not truthful about the relation with Marathon and and and,,,,,,,,,
I have just about doubled my holdings in THTX for just one reason....because I thought the Sp was too low so far that was a good decision but Iwill live with whatever happens ,,,I am the master of my destiny but sick and tired of the constant lamenting of some
....
SPCEO1 wrote: It looks to me like your first two sentences show we are in agreement. It is a win big (good TH-1902 results) or win little (bad TH-1902 results but profitable operations) situation for THTX.
Your third sentence indicates you thought I said they knew TH-1902 results prior to the offering. I didn't say that and never thought that. They may have had some early bad drug reaction in the first dosed patient info at the time of the offering but that seems to be highly unlikely. What I was saying is the decision to go forward with an offering prior to knowing the results of TH-1902 would be really irritating for legacy shareholders since, had they waited and those results were good, there would not have been a need to give half the company away.
Now, PWIB has indicated that it is possible Marathon gave them until the end of October to do another raise and that is why the timing of the the offering is what it was. IQ it seems required THTX raise an additional $12.5 million to give over their $12.5 million. So, maybe THTX was forced to move sooner than they would have preferred and maybe they were forced to raise more than they wanted. But I would argue they had options that were far better for shareholders and I know they did as I offered them one. They never took it seriously. And that is one of the reasons I think they did this deal primarily to save their jobs. Oddly, my group of shareholders are not the firing type, which we have proven more than once, and our option was clearly superior to what THTX opted for. Maybe we could never have pulled off what I was offering (you may recall my preferred share idea) but they did not even try.
Now, I don't know all that went on behind the scenes in the run-up to the offering and there is likely much more to the story. But what I do know tells me they made a big mistake in what they ultimately chose to do. At a minimum, it seems like they put all their financing eggs in the IQ basket and, then IQ took the company, and all of us as well, to the cleaners. They should ahve at least had several financing options on the table at the same time, including the one I offered, and probably would have had a better outcome had they raised a smaller amount prior to the TH-1902 results being avaiable.
palinc2000 wrote: IF and it is s big IF the clinical results come out good then you should rejoice.
If the redults are not good you should also be pleased that there is a safety net not to default on the Marathon debt
You need to understand that the Company was not aware of positive results at the time of the Financing
SPCEO1 wrote: They already should have six week results on the first patient and could potentially have even more than that if they signed up one or two more patients pretty quickly after the first. They can talk about any results anytime they want to as these are open label trials but since they are not in a money raising mode at the moment, I think the chances of them sharing news early is small. The next news expected is they have dosed the sixth patient. Maybe we will get some news on results on the first six patients sometime in the middle of the first quarter of 2024. If the results are not that impressive, then I suspect the chances they continue with the trial into its next phase are minimal.
I suspect there is a decent chance the results will be good enough for them to move forward given the changes to the trial. The limiting factor is potential randomness of results with just six patients.
If the results are good, that opens up a lot of possibilities for THTX. If the results are bad, it is back to trying to keep costs low and turn a profit with the current two approved drugs. Either outcome should lead to a higher share price but good TH-1902 results opens up the chances of a big move higher in the share price.
It would also greatly irritate all legacy shareholders even further because it would highlight the seeming absurdity of giving half the company away at a ridiculous price in the most recent offering.
bigkagan wrote: Probably some news soon about the cancer trial. When the patient dozing is done the first results will start coming in, similar to MDNA trial when they reported the early results and the stock almost doubled