RE:RE:TLG vs. ARTGMacro as in price of gold, interest rates on borrowing, inflation on construction contracts and supplies...?
ARTG will likely be selling ounces before year end. TLG looks like they won't be making a dime on gold or copper sales until sometime in 2026 at the earliest. If you aren't producing, investors want to see you progressing toward the start of construction, then from shovels in the ground to first pour, on time and on budget. We'lll see how well JR and his group do on that front. If we see delays similar to the release of the FS, I doubt the market will reward them with a higher share price.
Agree we don't know how much a mining company will pay for 50% ownership of the mine, but it won't be anywhere close to $1B - initial capex money is all spent up front before an ounce of gold or copper is poured and sold, so if you consider the time value of money, putting up that cash to be spent up front while not generating any revenue for a couple of years will make it far less than $1B. Mining is capex intensive by nature, so even big mining companies often don't have $100s of millions lying around waiting to be spent as they too carry debt and have to continuously sink money into both new mine builds as well as existing mining operations.
I'll go out on a limb and say the TLG's initial capex will be $1B+. You can call me on it if I'm wrong, but from what I've gathered re. recent comments by JR and reading between the lines, this looks to be highly probable.
I'll also state that I think it's highly likely that TLG FS figures don't come close to ARTG's numbers, nor will TLG execute the contracting and permitting processes nearly as well or hit target dates the way ARTG did. This all goes into the mix re. share price appreciation / market cap.