RE:Why can't they go alone? If the initial capex is $1B or more (which I'm almost certain), there's no way I can see TLG being able to come close to raising this amount of money by themselves.
Here are TLG's financing component options (please add any additional choices I may have missed):
Equity Raise:
Assume TLG can issue new shares at 1.00 each (I'm being generous here because typically, a company has to provide a discount if they want to find a private placement investor or underwriter to take the shares. I'm also assuming the share price will hit 1.00 before TLG starts raising the money needed to build the mine up to first pour).
If they issued 300M news shares and doubled the current share count, that would still only amount to $300M of the $1B needed.
If you think $1.00 a share is too cheap to issue new shares, that's an enormous amount of shareholder dilution.
Further, you can only sell as many new shares as the private placement buyer wishes to purchase or underwriter thinks they can sell at a profit, so TLG may not be able to issue anywhere close to this volume of new shares in any event even if they wanted to.
Streaming Agreement:
This would be a better financing alternative IMO. ARTG's streaming agreement with Wheaton netted them $176M as an example.
Royalty Agreement:
JR bought back a previous existing royalty on the project, so it's hard to see him doing a 180 and now raising money by selling a royalty, though again, who knows. Either way, this would only amount to a fraction of the $1B needed, likely similar to what a streaming agreement would fetch.
This can help finance the project on more reasonable terms than going to a financial institution and asking for a loan. Don't know how much this would be worth.
Debt Financing:
Given a company engaging in their first mine build will not be earning any revenue or be able to start paying back either the principle or any interest on the loan until after it starts pouring and selling the metals / materials, potential creditors first want to take a look at the DFS and other plans the company has to bring the mine into existence. Further, they'll want to see that the company can raise most of the initial capex by other means before they'll offer you a loan. In other words, there's a limit to the amount of risk they'll accept / money they'll loan TLG at this stage of its existence.
Quebec Financing? CAT Financing? How much can be raised using these avenues for a project like this....?
I highly doubt the financing components JR selects from the above options will bring in anywhere close to $1B, and some (like an equity raise) would not be advisable IMO as the shareholder dilution would be absurd. Thus, A JV is almost certain.
No way TLG gets anywhere close to $2 a share if they announce a sale of the company next month. Gold rose to an all-time high of over $2,400 this year and currently sits at $2,350 with copper also surging and currently at around $4.50 / pound. In spite of this, TLG's current share price closed Friday at 0.66 and the only notable news so far in 2024 is the sale of a non-core property and an announcement that the DFS will be delayed until May, so I suspect the main driver of TLG's price gains year-to-date are due to the rise in the price of gold, not anything company specific. Even if the DFS drives the share price up to 1.00, hard to imagine any company will pay a 100% premium or more to acquire it given they'll have to pick up the ball and come up with the $1B+ to complete the mine build.