Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) T.TOU

TD Notes

[retiredcf]

The Gas Line

Weekly Gas Charts

In the following charts, we summarize the key data points of North American natural- gas supply and demand dynamics. In this week's edition, we highlight the following:

1. This week, we observed a 222 Bcf withdrawal, which was in line with the consensus expectation of a 221 Bcf withdrawal, and above the five-year average of a 167 Bcf withdrawal.

2. A series of larger-than-historical withdrawals has eroded current storage levels to 9% below the five-year average and 17% below year ago levels. This has been a direct result of cold winter weather.

3. U.S. storage levels remain tight when compared with domestic/foreign demand (22% below normal levels as measured in days of supply, Exhibit 3).

4. U.S. natural gas production was negatively impacted by freeze off over the last several weeks which impacted storage levels, however, this has begun to subside.

5. Expectations for next week are for a withdrawal of ~150-170 Bcf, which compares with the five-year average withdrawal of 134 Bcf.