Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) T.TOU

Added shares today

[fishcarrier]

I find it hard to decide whether, how much and what stocks to buy these days. I don't find the market that attractive. So, can't lose with Tourmaline can we? They should announce a good 4th quarter. My Thomson-Reuters expects 2.92 a share. Perhaps a bit optimistic. I don't expect a $2.00 bonus this time, but a buck would be good. With a bit colder weather and Freeport exporting again, we might see a profit. I can't leave oil and gas. GLTA

[EdPaquette]

Pull up a 10 year chart of tou together with natural gas prices. Tou could fall 50% and yes I know about hedging and deals for high priced gas.  Those deals have been an ongoing condition. 

[RJboxer]

TOU is much more than NG. Comparing them against a 10 year gas chart is a poor indicator of TOUs valuation. They are getting California pricing of $11 on 15% of their gas sales. Almost 7% gets JKM pricing of $20, and they have over 20% of calendar year 2023 hedged at $5. Then there's their processing capabilities and pipelines owned. Their condensate production of 32,000 bpd gets a premium to

[Eastbank]

That Thomson-Reuters you quoted at 2.92 must be incorrect....TD Waterhouse has an estimate of 2.29  which seems more realistic.

[fishcarrier]

Eastbank, you're absolutely right. T-R states that 90 days ago they expected earnings of 2.175; 30 days ago 2.342; currently 2.292! Not 2.92. My mistake.  If Tourmaline can find enough money to pay dividends of a dollar + the .25 per quarter, we're still making 8.3% in dividends on a $60 stock. But TOU also shows an upside of over 50% in share value. 

[JohnSP]

Normally TOU announces their quarterly Special Dividend along with quarterly results, except for Q4 where for 2021Q4 they release an Operational Update & Special Div PR on Jan 17: https://tourmaline.cdn.prismic.io/tourmaline/4579b71e-d51a-4349-9dfe-4fcc4f4828d6_Tourmaline+January+2022+Dividend+and+Operational+Update+Final.pdf. Similarly for 2022Q4 results, they've already released an

[og1959]

The extra time for Q4 is largely due to the fact this is where the audit occurs and that takes time.   The interims are all unaudited so most companies have then ready 30 to 40 days after the Q. So hopefully early May we learn the amount of the next special.