$4.86 selling price vs >$8US stripGood or bad? Let me situate you. TOU's average nat gas selling price in Q1 was $4.84 Canadian, and the US spot price out 9 months is > $8 USD. They have a contract to sell 7-8% of volumes at world prices of >$25 USD starting in 7 months. And with this low low price of $4.84, they had record prices.
The hedges will roll off. Maybe spot will be lower, maybe it will be higher. But even with the hedges they have insane cash flow and no debt. If prices are similar in 7 months, their cash flow could easily be double what it is now. If they had a 6 times cash flow multiple, it would be a $150 stock. I would expect to see $150 within 3 years anyway with LNG Canada coming online.
There you go. It was an awesome quarter. Not to mention they are outperforming on production. Maybe TOU sells off, but I would not be surprised to see $3-4 in further special dividends in Q3 + Q4.