RE:Special dividendI expect the dividend announcement will be more like early March after Q4. The first 2 specials were the month after the quarter end but after that they made it after the quarter was announced.
You may be surprised to see dividend is not much lower, if at all. The NYMEX price is lower but AECO is higher- AECO was brutal in Q3 due to maintenance. TOU has several market and NY is just a small part. The hedges in 2022 were also a few low ones assumed from the acquisition spree. I wonder whether their stored gas at PGE in California was unloaded the last few weeks ($30 to 60 per mcf at times). They will also have higher production in Q4. Liquids price will be lower.
Also keep in mind thay are 500 million below their debt target so they could still pay out a bit more than FCF.
What you don't know is if they did any acquisitions for a few hundred million or so like they did with buying out minority owners of processing plants.
People staring at NYMEX price alone may expect lower but i don't agree with that