The vote. Here goes the math:
200,000,000 shares outstanding.
Minority holds half, 100,000,000 (slightly less but close enough).
Pentwater + SailingStone ~ 16% of total float, 32,000,000 = 32% of minority.
Require simple majority of minority votes cast to vote "NO" to defeat offer.
Assume 90% participation other than Pentwater and SailingStone.
Therefore, 93,200,000 votes cast in total.
32,000,000 votes cast by Pentwater and SailingStone, 61,200,000 by remaining minority.
Pentwater and SailingStone = 34.3% of minority votes cast.
Require > 15,7%, 14,632,400 votes to defeat.
Equates to 23.9% of remaking minority to vote "NO".
Surely the offer will fail?
Someone please check my math.
Disclosure: First bought the stock in 1999 where first operations were in Burma (Myanmar).
Then along came Friedland and Ivanhoe and the Mongolia discovery. Did not participate in the ensuing 3 rights offerings, sold the rights, pocketed cash. Over the following years have bought the dips. Should have sold years ago at today's equivalent of $296. Oh well. Will vote "NO" and hold out for $75 (the infrastructure cost) plus future earnings. Nothing less than $125 in my opinion is a "fair" offer.
If the offer is defeated, expect stock will suffer but will pick up as underground cash flow ramps up.